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FISSURE Universe: Episode 6. Play-In · BO2
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:0
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:0
OGloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
V-Tune · 25 games
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Lorenof · 22 games
59%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Rein · 19 games
53%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Daxak · 19 games
53%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Daxak · 18 games
61%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 16 games
44%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Antares · 14 games
57%
Warlock
Warlock
Rein · 13 games
54%

OG

Jakiro
Jakiro
Kidaro · 20 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
MikSa` · 19 games
37%
Warlock
Warlock
Kidaro · 15 games
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Stormstormer · 14 games
29%
Muerta
Muerta
Daze · 14 games
29%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Shad · 14 games
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Kidaro · 11 games
27%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Daze · 11 games
45%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
504 picks · 539 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
413 picks · 429 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
352 picks · 366 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
340 picks · 505 bans
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
322 picks · 701 bans
46%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
300 picks · 193 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
300 picks · 550 bans
53%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
298 picks · 435 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 41%
Hero pool strength57% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total57% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed40:25
Virtus.pro 46%OG 54%
The model gave 54% on OG — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 45:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaV-Tune
49% · 107 games47% · 90 games
AbaddonShad
Abaddon
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSerenada
48% · 232 games52% · 213 games
TimbersawMikSa`
Timbersaw
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakerмистер мораль
47% · 131 game54% · 198 games
PuckStormstormer
Puck
Hoodwink
HoodwinkOneJey
47% · 124 games54% · 124 games
RubickDaze
Rubick
Silencer
SilencerRein
54% · 68 games47% · 37 games
DazzleLelis
Dazzle
Game 2prediction missed41:14
Virtus.pro 48%OG 52%
The model gave 52% on OG — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 39:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonV-Tune
44% · 60 games49% · 157 games
SvenShad
Sven
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSerenada
52% · 177 games42% · 146 games
Queen of PainStormstormer
Queen of Pain
Pangolier
Pangolierмистер мораль
46% · 248 games57% · 81 game
AxeMikSa`
Axe
Rubick
RubickOneJey
50% · 112 games51% · 155 games
HoodwinkDaze
Hoodwink
Dazzle
DazzleRein
51% · 38 games63% · 96 games
Ancient ApparitionLelis
Ancient Apparition
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 57%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2