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FISSURE Universe: Episode 6. Play-In · BO2
result vs prediction
HULIGANIloss 1:1
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:1
One Moveloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
mrls · 21 game
62%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
erase · 14 games
36%
Tiny
Tinysignature
erase · 13 games
69%
Jakiro
Jakiro
RESPECT · 12 games
58%
Windranger
Windranger
mrls · 12 games
58%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Malik · 11 games
45%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
v1olent- · 11 games
55%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunter
mrls · 9 games
56%

One Move

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Eyesight · 19 games
37%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Difference · 19 games
58%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ChodΣX · 18 games
56%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Bb3px · 17 games
29%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Bb3px · 17 games
47%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Difference · 16 games
31%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Gilgir · 14 games
64%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Difference · 14 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
503 picks · 539 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
413 picks · 429 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
352 picks · 364 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
340 picks · 505 bans
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
322 picks · 699 bans
46%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
300 picks · 193 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
299 picks · 549 bans
53%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
298 picks · 435 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 47%
Hero pool strength53% HULIGANI
Head-to-head4 – 3
Model total54% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:31
HULIGANI 49%One Move 51%
The model gave 51% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 53:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightv1olent-
55% · 25 games50% · 80 games
UrsaKiritych
Ursa
Monkey King
Monkey Kingerase
58% · 159 games44% · 134 games
Dawnbreakerlaise
Dawnbreaker
Axe
AxeMalik
45% · 49 games51% · 66 games
LeshracDifference
Leshrac
Chen
ChenRESPECT
62% · 65 games47% · 76 games
BaneFishman
Bane
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanImmersion
48% · 162 games41% · 104 games
Lionsayuw
Lion
Game 2prediction missed34:18
HULIGANI 47%One Move 53%
The model gave 53% on One Move — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 34:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetv1olent-
52% · 162 games52% · 92 games
UrsaKiritych
Ursa
Primal Beast
Primal Beasterase
55% · 162 games52% · 204 games
Ember SpiritDifference
Ember Spirit
Magnus
MagnusMalik
54% · 166 games49% · 60 games
Axelaise
Axe
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonImmersion
47% · 138 games49% · 204 games
EnchantressFishman
Enchantress
Bane
BaneRESPECT
43% · 52 games46% · 120 games
Marcisayuw
Marci
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 54%
Accuracy by game1 of 2