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FISSURE Universe: Episode 6. Play-In · BO2
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 2:0
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MOUZloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Doom
Doomsignature
Munkushi~ · 15 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 15 games
53%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Munkushi~ · 15 games
73%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
SSS · 14 games
64%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
SSS · 13 games
38%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
SSS · 13 games
77%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Hduo · 13 games
38%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Fishman · 12 games
50%

MOUZ

Jakiro
Jakiro
Ekki · 13 games
46%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 10 games
20%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Kami · 9 games
44%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
zeal · 9 games
56%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Lowskill · 9 games
33%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Seleri · 8 games
38%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Supream^ · 8 games
25%
Io
Iooften banned
Seleri · 7 games
29%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
502 picks · 539 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
413 picks · 429 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
351 picks · 363 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
340 picks · 504 bans
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
322 picks · 699 bans
46%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
299 picks · 192 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
299 picks · 547 bans
53%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
297 picks · 173 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 36%
Hero pool strength59% 1w Team
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total66% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:22
1w Team 62%MOUZ 38%
The model gave 62% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 51:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomMunkushi~
54% · 254 games49% · 159 games
Shadow Fiend423
Shadow Fiend
Death Prophet
Death ProphetSquad1x
53% · 80 games49% · 285 games
Storm SpiritSupream^
Storm Spirit
Batrider
BatriderSSS
57% · 316 games37% · 75 games
AxeBOOM
Axe
Marci
Marciswedenstrong
51% · 181 game47% · 354 games
TuskThiolicor
Tusk
Warlock
Warlockkasane
50% · 188 games51% · 146 games
AbaddonSeleri
Abaddon
Game 2prediction correct41:15
1w Team 62%MOUZ 38%
The model gave 62% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 32:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaMunkushi~
52% · 166 games48% · 156 games
Gyrocopter423
Gyrocopter
Leshrac
LeshracSquad1x
50% · 65 games48% · 109 games
TimbersawBOOM
Timbersaw
Undying
UndyingSSS
54% · 61 game54% · 72 games
Primal BeastSupream^
Primal Beast
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenkasane
51% · 92 games43% · 203 games
Dark WillowThiolicor
Dark Willow
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanswedenstrong
56% · 175 games38% · 19 games
IoSeleri
Io
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 66%
Series result1w Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2