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FISSURE Universe: Episode 6. Play-In · BO2
result vs prediction
Wildcard Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Yellow Submarineloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Wildcard Gaming

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
RCY · 22 games
32%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Bignum · 22 games
55%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
RCY · 21 game
48%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
YamSun · 20 games
45%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Speeed · 19 games
58%
Puck
Pucksignature
RCY · 19 games
63%
Chen
Chensignature
Speeed · 18 games
78%
Warlock
Warlock
Speeed · 17 games
47%

Yellow Submarine

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
mrls · 11 games
55%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
bottega · 10 games
40%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 9 games
44%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Xakoda · 9 games
56%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
mrls · 9 games
33%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
mrls · 8 games
63%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Xakoda · 8 games
38%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Infernal · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
501 picks · 539 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
412 picks · 429 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
350 picks · 363 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
340 picks · 504 bans
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
322 picks · 698 bans
46%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
299 picks · 191 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
298 picks · 546 bans
53%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
297 picks · 173 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 52%
Hero pool strength53% Wildcard Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total74% Wildcard Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:5
Wildcard Gaming 64%Yellow Submarine 36%
The model gave 64% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 28:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetYamSun
56% · 217 games43% · 105 games
Queen of PainMirele
Queen of Pain
Beastmaster
BeastmasterFayde
48% · 358 games49% · 197 games
Gyrocopterbottega
Gyrocopter
Void Spirit
Void SpiritRCY
48% · 141 game46% · 151 game
Centaur WarrunnerInfernal
Centaur Warrunner
Tinker
TinkerSpeeed
48% · 65 games51% · 226 games
Puckmrls
Puck
Bane
BaneBignum
57% · 98 games53% · 200 games
Shadow ShamanXakoda
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction correct28:18
Wildcard Gaming 62%Yellow Submarine 38%
The model gave 62% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 46:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingRCY
56% · 227 games51% · 214 games
Templar AssassinMirele
Templar Assassin
Tiny
TinyYamSun
46% · 376 games46% · 210 games
Dawnbreakerbottega
Dawnbreaker
Lycan
LycanFayde
58% · 89 games52% · 431 game
BeastmasterInfernal
Beastmaster
Silencer
SilencerSpeeed
54% · 77 games55% · 78 games
BaneXakoda
Bane
Tusk
TuskBignum
47% · 333 games37% · 169 games
Marcimrls
Marci
Model check result
Model favoriteWildcard Gaming · 74%
Series resultWildcard Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2