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FISSURE Universe: Episode 6. Play-In · BO2
result vs prediction
OGloss 0:2
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Runa Teamwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Jakiro
Jakiro
Kidaro · 20 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
MikSa` · 19 games
37%
Muerta
Muerta
Daze · 14 games
29%
Warlock
Warlock
Kidaro · 14 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Stormstormer · 13 games
31%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Stormstormer · 13 games
54%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Kidaro · 11 games
27%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Daze · 11 games
45%

Runa Team

Windranger
Windranger
queezy · 31 game
45%
Tiny
Tinysignature
nicky`cool · 30 games
60%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Hduo · 17 games
47%
Batrider
Batridersignature
queezy · 17 games
71%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 16 games
63%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Shigetsu · 16 games
63%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Alberkaaa · 15 games
53%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
Hduo · 15 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
499 picks · 539 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
411 picks · 429 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
349 picks · 362 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
340 picks · 504 bans
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
322 picks · 697 bans
46%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
298 picks · 190 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
297 picks · 545 bans
53%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
297 picks · 173 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 60%
Hero pool strength59% Runa Team
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total60% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:32
OG 55%Runa Team 45%
The model gave 55% on OG — the game was taken by Runa Team in 31:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyShad
51% · 403 games47% · 269 games
Nature's ProphetShigetsu
Nature's Prophet
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritStormstormer
52% · 243 games47% · 215 games
Timbersawnicky`cool
Timbersaw
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerMikSa`
50% · 203 games43% · 156 games
MarsAlberkaaa
Mars
Warlock
WarlockLelis
49% · 129 games52% · 158 games
Pugnaqueezy
Pugna
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanDaze
58% · 163 games50% · 343 games
ClockwerkHduo
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction missed11:25
OG 53%Runa Team 47%
The model gave 53% on OG — the game was taken by Runa Team in 33:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerShad
55% · 103 games49% · 189 games
MedusaShigetsu
Medusa
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightStormstormer
53% · 234 games48% · 84 games
AxeAlberkaaa
Axe
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainMikSa`
48% · 137 games54% · 287 games
Pucknicky`cool
Puck
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanLelis
55% · 243 games48% · 341 game
Dark Willowqueezy
Dark Willow
Tusk
TuskDaze
46% · 399 games43% · 215 games
WarlockHduo
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 60%
Series resultRuna Team 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2