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FISSURE Universe: Episode 6. Play-In · BO2
result vs prediction
Runa Teamloss 0:2
series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 0:2
1w Teamwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Runa Team

Windranger
Windranger
queezy · 31 game
45%
Tiny
Tinysignature
nicky`cool · 29 games
62%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Hduo · 17 games
47%
Batrider
Batridersignature
queezy · 17 games
71%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 16 games
63%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Alberkaaa · 15 games
53%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
Hduo · 15 games
67%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Shigetsu · 15 games
67%

1w Team

Doom
Doomsignature
Munkushi~ · 15 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 15 games
53%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Munkushi~ · 15 games
73%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
SSS · 14 games
64%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
SSS · 13 games
38%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
SSS · 13 games
77%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Hduo · 13 games
38%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Fishman · 12 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
498 picks · 535 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
412 picks · 430 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
351 picks · 356 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
339 picks · 504 bans
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
320 picks · 699 bans
46%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
298 picks · 174 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
296 picks · 434 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
295 picks · 189 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 70%
Hero pool strength50% 1w Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:27
Runa Team 40%1w Team 60%
The model gave 60% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 34:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerShigetsu
51% · 78 games51% · 223 games
Nature's ProphetMunkushi~
Nature's Prophet
Timbersaw
Timbersawnicky`cool
51% · 178 games52% · 85 games
LeshracSquad1x
Leshrac
Beastmaster
BeastmasterAlberkaaa
48% · 294 games46% · 189 games
MarsSSS
Mars
Lion
Lionqueezy
50% · 172 games45% · 420 games
Clockwerkswedenstrong
Clockwerk
Tusk
TuskHduo
52% · 365 games55% · 170 games
Pugnakasane
Pugna
Game 2prediction correct13:27
Runa Team 42%1w Team 58%
The model gave 58% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 33:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinShigetsu
55% · 188 games49% · 151 game
Shadow FiendMunkushi~
Shadow Fiend
Tiny
Tinynicky`cool
52% · 369 games48% · 327 games
PuckSquad1x
Puck
Pangolier
PangolierAlberkaaa
46% · 397 games46% · 194 games
MarsSSS
Mars
Dazzle
DazzleHduo
60% · 39 games48% · 175 games
Pugnaswedenstrong
Pugna
Dark Willow
Dark Willowqueezy
48% · 265 games53% · 411 games
Clockwerkkasane
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 70%
Series result1w Team 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2