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European Pro League Season 28 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZloss 0:2
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Yellow Submarinewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Jakiro
Jakiro
Ekki · 13 games
46%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 10 games
20%
Magnus
Magnussignature
xsvampire · 10 games
60%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Lowskill · 10 games
30%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Kami · 9 games
44%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
zeal · 9 games
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Fly · 8 games
38%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 8 games
13%

Yellow Submarine

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
bottega · 10 games
40%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 9 games
44%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Xakoda · 9 games
56%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
mrls · 9 games
67%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
mrls · 9 games
33%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
mrls · 8 games
63%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Xakoda · 8 games
38%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Infernal · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
498 picks · 535 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
413 picks · 430 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
351 picks · 356 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
339 picks · 505 bans
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
321 picks · 700 bans
46%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
300 picks · 174 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
296 picks · 434 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
295 picks · 189 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 52%
Hero pool strength56% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total66% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
MOUZ 66%Yellow Submarine 34%
The model gave 66% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine.
Game 2prediction missed
MOUZ 66%Yellow Submarine 34%
The model gave 66% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine.
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 66%
Series resultYellow Submarine 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2