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Riyadh Masters 2025 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Falconswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 46 games
70%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 37 games
81%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Saksa · 32 games
78%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 31 game
71%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
33 · 30 games
67%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
33 · 25 games
64%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
33 · 25 games
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
dyrachyo · 25 games
72%

Team Falcons

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 48 games
52%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 37 games
46%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Sneyking · 34 games
59%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
Cr1t- · 29 games
62%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Skiter · 26 games
46%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Skiter · 25 games
48%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Cr1t- · 24 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Sneyking · 23 games
52%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
499 picks · 531 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
440 picks · 458 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
363 picks · 361 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
348 picks · 516 bans
51%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
348 picks · 198 bans
51%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
344 picks · 725 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
309 picks · 460 bans
49%
Jakiro
Jakiro
307 picks · 195 bans
44%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 45%
Hero pool strength59% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head9 – 8
Model total63% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:25
Tundra Esports 58%Team Falcons 42%
The model gave 58% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 44:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingCrystallis
57% · 324 games49% · 208 games
GyrocopterSkiter
Gyrocopter
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritbzm
55% · 385 games50% · 129 games
MarsATF
Mars
Visage
Visage33
40% · 61 game51% · 246 games
BeastmasterMalr1ne
Beastmaster
Marci
MarciSaksa
43% · 161 game54% · 92 games
Ancient ApparitionCr1t-
Ancient Apparition
Dazzle
DazzleWhitemon
50% · 35 games50% · 291 game
TuskSneyking
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed49:51
Tundra Esports 59%Team Falcons 41%
The model gave 59% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 1:20:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painbzm
42% · 192 games46% · 252 games
Ember SpiritMalr1ne
Ember Spirit
Doom
DoomCrystallis
47% · 342 games61% · 273 games
BristlebackATF
Bristleback
Undying
Undying33
52% · 94 games51% · 326 games
TinySkiter
Tiny
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenWhitemon
47% · 172 games59% · 113 games
MiranaSneyking
Mirana
Tusk
TuskSaksa
46% · 483 games51% · 319 games
BatriderCr1t-
Batrider
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 63%
Series resultTeam Falcons 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2