European Pro League Season 28 · BO3
result vs prediction
Kalmychataloss 0:2series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Level UPwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Kalmychata
Svensignature
rincyq · 9 games
Death Prophetoften banned
xn丶e · 8 games
Ringmaster
not me · 7 games
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 7 games
Mars
fortniteMan · 6 games
Shadow Fiendsignature
Mirage · 6 games
Axeoften banned
meLes · 5 games
Chaos Knight
Ponlo · 5 games
Level UP
Queen of Painoften banned
MaTson · 11 games
Leshrac
Atoufix · 8 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
MaTson · 7 games
Miranasignature
Ponlo · 7 games
Dawnbreakersignature
krol9ash · 6 games
Earthshaker
MaTson · 6 games
Medusasignature
rubikon155 · 6 games
Puckoften banned
MaTson · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
491 picks · 529 bans
Tiny
440 picks · 458 bans
Tusk
359 picks · 358 bans
Pangolier
348 picks · 513 bans
Ringmaster
347 picks · 198 bans
Terrorblade
344 picks · 724 bans
Storm Spirit
308 picks · 460 bans
Jakiro
306 picks · 195 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 44%
Hero pool strength52% Kalmychata
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total68% Kalmychata
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Kalmychata 68%Level UP 32%
The model gave 68% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Level UP.
Game 2prediction missed
Kalmychata 68%Level UP 32%
The model gave 68% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Level UP.
Model check result
Model favoriteKalmychata · 68%
Series resultLevel UP 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2