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European Pro League Season 28 · BO3
result vs prediction
TNL DOTAwin 2:0
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Yellow Submarineloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TNL DOTA

Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Fernans · 15 games
60%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
dualrazee · 15 games
47%
Tusk
Tusk
Fernans · 14 games
36%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
dualrazee · 11 games
45%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Norma · 11 games
64%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
flacko · 9 games
44%
Batrider
Batridersignature
dualrazee · 8 games
75%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Norma · 8 games
75%

Yellow Submarine

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 11 games
36%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
bottega · 11 games
36%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
mrls · 9 games
67%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Xakoda · 9 games
56%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
mrls · 9 games
67%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Infernal · 9 games
33%
Tusk
Tusk
mrls · 9 games
33%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
mrls · 8 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
491 picks · 529 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
440 picks · 458 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
359 picks · 358 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
348 picks · 513 bans
51%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
347 picks · 198 bans
52%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
344 picks · 724 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
308 picks · 460 bans
49%
Jakiro
Jakiro
306 picks · 195 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 58%
Hero pool strength55% TNL DOTA
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total66% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
TNL DOTA 34%Yellow Submarine 66%
The model gave 66% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by TNL DOTA.
Game 2prediction missed
TNL DOTA 34%Yellow Submarine 66%
The model gave 66% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by TNL DOTA.
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 66%
Series resultTNL DOTA 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2