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European Pro League Season 28 · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarinewin 2:0
series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Lynxloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yellow Submarine

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
re1bl · 13 games
46%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 11 games
36%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
mrls · 10 games
70%
Muerta
Muerta
mrls · 9 games
56%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Xakoda · 9 games
56%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
mrls · 9 games
67%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Infernal · 9 games
33%
Tusk
Tusk
mrls · 9 games
33%

Team Lynx

Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
StoneBank · 6 games
17%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
StoneBank · 5 games
60%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
StoneBank · 4 games
0%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
DarkLord^ · 4 games
25%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
DarkLord^ · 3 games
33%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
DarkLord^ · 3 games
0%
Wraith King
Wraith King
StoneBank · 3 games
33%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
StoneBank · 2 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
491 picks · 529 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
440 picks · 458 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
359 picks · 358 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
348 picks · 513 bans
51%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
347 picks · 198 bans
52%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
344 picks · 724 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
308 picks · 460 bans
49%
Jakiro
Jakiro
306 picks · 195 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 35%
Hero pool strength57% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total87% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Yellow Submarine 87%Team Lynx 13%
The model gave 87% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine.
Game 2prediction correct
Yellow Submarine 87%Team Lynx 13%
The model gave 87% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine.
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 87%
Series resultYellow Submarine 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2