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Riyadh Masters 2025 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Aurora Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 45 games
71%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 36 games
81%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
33 · 30 games
67%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 30 games
70%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Saksa · 29 games
76%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
33 · 25 games
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
dyrachyo · 25 games
72%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
33 · 25 games
72%

Aurora Gaming

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Nightfall · 41 game
51%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Mira · 34 games
56%
Magnus
Magnussignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 31 game
74%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Mira · 31 game
58%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Panto · 24 games
50%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
Nightfall · 23 games
61%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Mira · 23 games
78%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Nightfall · 22 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
483 picks · 521 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
451 picks · 477 bans
48%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
365 picks · 204 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
354 picks · 360 bans
47%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
349 picks · 742 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
346 picks · 520 bans
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
324 picks · 208 bans
45%
Kunkka
Kunkka
320 picks · 509 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 49%
Hero pool strength56% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total64% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:29
Tundra Esports 58%Aurora Gaming 42%
The model gave 58% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 31:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Axe
Axe33
60% · 60 games51% · 91 game
AbaddonNightfall
Abaddon
Slark
SlarkCrystallis
56% · 61 game52% · 126 games
DawnbreakerTORONTOTOKYO
Dawnbreaker
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendbzm
47% · 145 games44% · 103 games
Queen of Painkiyotaka
Queen of Pain
Marci
MarciSaksa
50% · 141 game45% · 66 games
BanePanto
Bane
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanWhitemon
52% · 208 games45% · 229 games
TuskMira
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct43:13
Tundra Esports 58%Aurora Gaming 42%
The model gave 58% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 39:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void Spirit
Void Spiritbzm
58% · 122 games51% · 69 games
LifestealerNightfall
Lifestealer
Brewmaster
Brewmaster33
45% · 61 game47% · 277 games
Puckkiyotaka
Puck
Monkey King
Monkey KingCrystallis
55% · 244 games53% · 171 game
MagnusTORONTOTOKYO
Magnus
Dazzle
DazzleWhitemon
59% · 48 games48% · 234 games
Dark WillowMira
Dark Willow
Tusk
TuskSaksa
42% · 391 game45% · 115 games
WarlockPanto
Warlock
Game 3prediction missed27:36
Tundra Esports 59%Aurora Gaming 41%
The model gave 59% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 53:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingCrystallis
58% · 282 games44% · 50 games
LifestealerNightfall
Lifestealer
Void Spirit
Void Spiritbzm
58% · 134 games43% · 185 games
Puckkiyotaka
Puck
Brewmaster
Brewmaster33
48% · 83 games56% · 117 games
MagnusTORONTOTOKYO
Magnus
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterSaksa
52% · 88 games40% · 158 games
TuskPanto
Tusk
Dazzle
DazzleWhitemon
57% · 48 games44% · 125 games
Dark WillowMira
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 64%
Series resultAurora Gaming 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3