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Riyadh Masters 2025 · BO2
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
series probability
90%10%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Yandexloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 44 games
70%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 36 games
81%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 29 games
69%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Saksa · 29 games
76%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
33 · 28 games
64%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
33 · 25 games
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
dyrachyo · 25 games
72%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
33 · 25 games
72%

Team Yandex

Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 5 games
40%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
TA2000 · 4 games
50%
Warlock
Warlock
Solo · 4 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Noticed · 3 games
100%
Dazzle
Dazzleoften banned
Noticed · 3 games
33%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Solo · 3 games
33%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 3 games
33%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
prblms · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
480 picks · 520 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
454 picks · 482 bans
48%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
367 picks · 206 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
356 picks · 358 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
350 picks · 523 bans
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
349 picks · 750 bans
48%
Jakiro
Jakiro
329 picks · 213 bans
45%
Kunkka
Kunkka
320 picks · 511 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 30%
Hero pool strength60% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total90% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:18
Tundra Esports 79%Team Yandex 21%
The model gave 79% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 39:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
Invokerbzm
55% · 158 games39% · 106 games
Shadow FiendTA2000
Shadow Fiend
Dark Seer
Dark Seer33
59% · 180 games48% · 96 games
KunkkaChira JUNIOR
Kunkka
Monkey King
Monkey KingCrystallis
56% · 250 games37% · 137 games
Queen of PainNoticed
Queen of Pain
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenWhitemon
56% · 100 games50% · 144 games
WarlockSolo
Warlock
Riki
RikiSaksa
59% · 55 games41% · 260 games
Muertaprblms
Muerta
Game 2prediction correct33:10
Tundra Esports 78%Team Yandex 22%
The model gave 78% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 26:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
Beastmasterbzm
48% · 189 games48% · 180 games
KunkkaTA2000
Kunkka
Monkey King
Monkey KingCrystallis
52% · 162 games45% · 133 games
Shadow FiendChira JUNIOR
Shadow Fiend
Dark Seer
Dark Seer33
55% · 118 games43% · 188 games
Queen of PainNoticed
Queen of Pain
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterSaksa
47% · 31 game54% · 73 games
Rikiprblms
Riki
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanWhitemon
56% · 140 games51% · 66 games
DisruptorSolo
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 90%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2