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Riyadh Masters 2025 · BO2
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Virtus.proloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Nightfall · 41 game
51%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Mira · 32 games
53%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Mira · 31 game
58%
Magnus
Magnussignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 30 games
73%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Panto · 24 games
50%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
Nightfall · 23 games
61%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Mira · 23 games
78%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Nightfall · 22 games
64%

Virtus.pro

Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Daxak · 24 games
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Lorenof · 23 games
57%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 20 games
50%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Rein · 18 games
56%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Daxak · 18 games
56%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Daxak · 16 games
69%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Nande · 14 games
64%
Batrider
Batridersignature
prblms · 13 games
85%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
480 picks · 520 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
454 picks · 482 bans
48%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
367 picks · 206 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
356 picks · 358 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
350 picks · 523 bans
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
349 picks · 750 bans
48%
Jakiro
Jakiro
329 picks · 213 bans
45%
Kunkka
Kunkka
320 picks · 511 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total87% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:11
Aurora Gaming 73%Virtus.pro 27%
The model gave 73% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 38:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendkiyotaka
43% · 112 games54% · 245 games
DoomV-Tune
Doom
Ursa
UrsaNightfall
50% · 164 games58% · 46 games
LeshracLorenof
Leshrac
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerTORONTOTOKYO
46% · 160 games53% · 203 games
Dark SeerDaxak
Dark Seer
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanMira
48% · 211 games48% · 15 games
VenomancerRein
Venomancer
Pugna
PugnaPanto
56% · 68 games45% · 206 games
TerrorbladeAntares
Terrorblade
Game 2prediction correct26:19
Aurora Gaming 75%Virtus.pro 25%
The model gave 75% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 36:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerNightfall
41% · 44 games44% · 91 game
LeshracV-Tune
Leshrac
Magnus
MagnusTORONTOTOKYO
55% · 160 games57% · 66 games
HuskarLorenof
Huskar
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritkiyotaka
51% · 183 games52% · 334 games
BristlebackDaxak
Bristleback
Batrider
BatriderPanto
46% · 230 games51% · 187 games
RubickAntares
Rubick
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanMira
51% · 138 games49% · 77 games
OracleRein
Oracle
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 87%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2