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Riyadh Masters 2025 · BO2
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 1:1
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Aurora Gamingloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 46 games
72%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 37 games
81%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 30 games
70%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
33 · 28 games
64%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Saksa · 28 games
75%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
dyrachyo · 27 games
74%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Whitemon · 26 games
65%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
33 · 25 games
52%

Aurora Gaming

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Nightfall · 41 game
51%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Mira · 32 games
53%
Tusk
Tusk
Mira · 31 game
58%
Magnus
Magnussignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 30 games
73%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Panto · 24 games
50%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
Nightfall · 23 games
61%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Mira · 23 games
78%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
kiyotaka · 22 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
475 picks · 515 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
468 picks · 499 bans
48%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
390 picks · 211 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
366 picks · 362 bans
47%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
356 picks · 768 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
350 picks · 526 bans
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
348 picks · 229 bans
45%
Kunkka
Kunkka
328 picks · 516 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 49%
Hero pool strength56% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total58% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:26
Tundra Esports 55%Aurora Gaming 45%
The model gave 55% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 47:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterCrystallis
41% · 116 games44% · 111 games
AbaddonNightfall
Abaddon
Puck
Puckbzm
50% · 111 games55% · 93 games
UndyingTORONTOTOKYO
Undying
Axe
Axe33
48% · 44 games48% · 60 games
Leshrackiyotaka
Leshrac
Tusk
TuskSaksa
48% · 196 games60% · 59 games
BanePanto
Bane
Dazzle
DazzleWhitemon
63% · 23 games52% · 167 games
LionMira
Lion
Game 2prediction missed8:31
Tundra Esports 55%Aurora Gaming 45%
The model gave 55% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 36:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorCrystallis
40% · 46 games51% · 43 games
Leshrackiyotaka
Leshrac
Puck
Puckbzm
54% · 127 games52% · 82 games
UrsaNightfall
Ursa
Axe
Axe33
44% · 42 games51% · 65 games
UndyingTORONTOTOKYO
Undying
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanSaksa
56% · 107 games51% · 72 games
PugnaPanto
Pugna
Disruptor
DisruptorWhitemon
44% · 25 games47% · 85 games
LionMira
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 58%
Accuracy by game1 of 2