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Riyadh Masters 2025 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0
series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Shopify Rebellionloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Tiny
Tinysignature
miCKe · 43 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
iNSaNiA · 31 game
68%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 30 games
70%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Boxi · 25 games
68%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SabeRLight- · 24 games
54%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Boxi · 23 games
43%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
miCKe · 23 games
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 22 games
68%

Shopify Rebellion

Tiny
Tinysignature
Yopaj · 21 game
76%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Yopaj · 18 games
72%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Timado · 18 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Timado · 17 games
47%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Timado · 17 games
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Hellscream · 16 games
63%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Timado · 16 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Yopaj · 15 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
481 picks · 512 bans
48%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
471 picks · 511 bans
55%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
402 picks · 212 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
375 picks · 364 bans
47%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
365 picks · 776 bans
48%
Jakiro
Jakiro
363 picks · 243 bans
46%
Pangolier
Pangolier
351 picks · 529 bans
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
336 picks · 503 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 42%
Hero pool strength53% Team Liquid
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total81% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:15
Team Liquid 68%Shopify Rebellion 32%
The model gave 68% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 39:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinmiCKe
53% · 165 games47% · 220 games
TerrorbladeTimado
Terrorblade
Void Spirit
Void SpiritNisha
52% · 88 games49% · 230 games
PuckYopaj
Puck
Lycan
LycanSabeRLight-
58% · 54 games61% · 112 games
EnigmaDavai
Enigma
Warlock
WarlockiNSaNiA
41% · 157 games52% · 46 games
LeshracHellscream
Leshrac
Dark Willow
Dark WillowBoxi
45% · 188 games48% · 44 games
BaneSkem
Bane
Game 2prediction correct39:11
Team Liquid 68%Shopify Rebellion 32%
The model gave 68% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 32:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetmiCKe
50% · 106 games53% · 149 games
Dark SeerDavai
Dark Seer
Void Spirit
Void SpiritNisha
47% · 78 games53% · 69 games
LifestealerTimado
Lifestealer
Brewmaster
BrewmasterSabeRLight-
46% · 71 game55% · 205 games
PuckYopaj
Puck
Dark Willow
Dark WillowBoxi
42% · 149 games46% · 32 games
Chaos KnightHellscream
Chaos Knight
Elder Titan
Elder TitaniNSaNiA
52% · 80 games53% · 29 games
DazzleSkem
Dazzle
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 81%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2