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Riyadh Masters 2025 · BO2
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
90%10%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Yandexloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Nightfall · 41 game
51%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Mira · 31 game
52%
Tusk
Tusk
Mira · 31 game
58%
Magnus
Magnussignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 30 games
73%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Panto · 24 games
50%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
Nightfall · 23 games
61%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Mira · 23 games
78%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
kiyotaka · 22 games
64%

Team Yandex

Dazzle
Dazzleoften banned
Noticed · 3 games
33%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 3 games
67%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
TA2000 · 3 games
33%
Warlock
Warlock
Solo · 3 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
prblms · 2 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
prblms · 2 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 2 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
TA2000 · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
482 picks · 519 bans
48%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
469 picks · 509 bans
55%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
406 picks · 212 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
377 picks · 367 bans
47%
Jakiro
Jakiro
366 picks · 248 bans
46%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
366 picks · 783 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
350 picks · 529 bans
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
340 picks · 505 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 25%
Hero pool strength55% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total90% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:22
Aurora Gaming 74%Team Yandex 26%
The model gave 74% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 45:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordNightfall
53% · 53 games49% · 98 games
UrsaTA2000
Ursa
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendkiyotaka
43% · 122 games60% · 151 game
Monkey KingChira JUNIOR
Monkey King
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerTORONTOTOKYO
47% · 179 games48% · 280 games
PangolierNoticed
Pangolier
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanMira
48% · 198 games62% · 113 games
Naga Sirenprblms
Naga Siren
Warlock
WarlockPanto
41% · 154 games55% · 64 games
BaneSolo
Bane
Game 2prediction correct31:24
Aurora Gaming 73%Team Yandex 27%
The model gave 73% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 41:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerNightfall
little data53% · 126 games
Queen of PainTA2000
Queen of Pain
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendkiyotaka
44% · 157 games55% · 120 games
TimbersawNoticed
Timbersaw
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerTORONTOTOKYO
50% · 181 game55% · 154 games
Monkey KingChira JUNIOR
Monkey King
Batrider
BatriderMira
50% · 342 games50% · 91 game
WarlockSolo
Warlock
Disruptor
DisruptorPanto
47% · 56 games49% · 245 games
Tuskprblms
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 90%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2