?
arrow_backBack to match
CCT Season 2 Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
TNL DOTAloss 1:2
series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Wildcard Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TNL DOTA

Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Fernans · 15 games
60%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
dualrazee · 15 games
47%
Tusk
Tusk
Fernans · 13 games
31%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Norma · 11 games
64%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
dualrazee · 10 games
50%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
flacko · 9 games
44%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Fernans · 8 games
75%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Norma · 8 games
75%

Wildcard Gaming

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
RCY · 28 games
36%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Fayde · 25 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
RCY · 25 games
48%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Bignum · 24 games
58%
Chen
Chensignature
Speeed · 24 games
83%
Puck
Pucksignature
RCY · 23 games
70%
Muerta
Muerta
Bignum · 21 game
48%
Tusk
Tusk
Bignum · 21 game
52%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
500 picks · 539 bans
49%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
465 picks · 505 bans
55%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
421 picks · 219 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
383 picks · 265 bans
46%
Tusk
Tusk
381 picks · 372 bans
48%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
370 picks · 803 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
352 picks · 535 bans
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
345 picks · 519 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 55%
Hero pool strength52% Wildcard Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total68% Wildcard Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:29
TNL DOTA 41%Wildcard Gaming 59%
The model gave 59% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by TNL DOTA in 48:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordyowaai
57% · 62 games53% · 340 games
Ember SpiritRCY
Ember Spirit
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritdualrazee
51% · 281 game57% · 110 games
LifestealerYamSun
Lifestealer
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainNorma
41% · 117 games49% · 181 game
KunkkaFayde
Kunkka
Phoenix
Phoenixflacko
50% · 235 games51% · 197 games
Nature's ProphetSpeeed
Nature's Prophet
Tusk
TuskFernans
47% · 335 games47% · 202 games
MarciBignum
Marci
Game 2prediction correct5:20
TNL DOTA 43%Wildcard Gaming 57%
The model gave 57% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 34:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingyowaai
50% · 294 games56% · 133 games
TimbersawRCY
Timbersaw
Kunkka
Kunkkadualrazee
54% · 200 games46% · 237 games
TerrorbladeYamSun
Terrorblade
Underlord
UnderlordNorma
48% · 95 games44% · 113 games
DawnbreakerFayde
Dawnbreaker
Windranger
WindrangerFernans
45% · 165 games47% · 74 games
TinkerSpeeed
Tinker
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenflacko
62% · 159 games46% · 356 games
TuskBignum
Tusk
Game 3prediction correct
TNL DOTA 32%Wildcard Gaming 68%
The model gave 68% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming.
Model check result
Model favoriteWildcard Gaming · 68%
Series resultWildcard Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3