European Pro League Season 27 · BO3
result vs prediction
Kalmychatawin 2:1series probability
21%79%
probability at match start · final 2:1
4Piratesloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Kalmychata
Svensignature
rincyq · 6 games
Marsoften banned
fortniteMan · 5 games
Ringmaster
not me · 5 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Mirage · 5 games
Timbersawoften banned
meLes · 5 games
Chaos Knight
Ponlo · 4 games
Shadow Shamanoften banned
aik · 4 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
rincyq · 4 games
4Pirates
Pangolieroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 27 games
Shadow Shamanoften banned
PERDAN4IK · 27 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Otaker · 20 games
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 19 games
Dawnbreakersignature
Otaker · 18 games
Tinyoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 18 games
Jakiro
PERDAN4IK · 17 games
Batridersignature
ariel · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
501 picks · 546 bans
Shadow Shaman
460 picks · 502 bans
Ringmaster
425 picks · 220 bans
Tusk
382 picks · 372 bans
Jakiro
381 picks · 271 bans
Terrorblade
367 picks · 806 bans
Pangolier
354 picks · 532 bans
Storm Spirit
350 picks · 520 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 74%
Hero pool strength52% 4Pirates
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total79% 4Pirates
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:39
Kalmychata 33%4Pirates 67%
The model gave 67% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 39:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusarincyq
BeastmasterOtaker
AxemeLes
SniperNattyNarwhal
Puckxn丶e
Timbersawмистер мораль
Dawnbreakeraik
Shadow Shamanariel
Ringmasternot me
Shadow DemonPERDAN4IK
Game 2prediction missed49:10
Kalmychata 33%4Pirates 67%
The model gave 67% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 30:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Svenrincyq
BristlebackOtaker
Death Prophetxn丶e
Pangolierмистер мораль
DawnbreakermeLes
Keeper of the LightNattyNarwhal
Windrangernot me
Shadow Shamanariel
Baneaik
TuskPERDAN4IK
Game 3prediction missed54:29
Kalmychata 32%4Pirates 68%
The model gave 68% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 47:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Death Prophetxn丶e
ClinkzOtaker
Svenrincyq
SniperNattyNarwhal
AxemeLes
Centaur Warrunnerмистер мораль
Shadow Demonnot me
TuskPERDAN4IK
Lichaik
Dark Willowariel
Model check result
Model favorite4Pirates · 79%
Series resultKalmychata 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3