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CCT Season 2 Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
TNL DOTAwin 2:1
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Zero Tenacityloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TNL DOTA

Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Fernans · 15 games
60%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
yowaai · 12 games
42%
Tusk
Tusk
Fernans · 12 games
25%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
dualrazee · 10 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Norma · 10 games
70%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Fernans · 7 games
71%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
flacko · 7 games
100%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
yowaai · 7 games
29%

Zero Tenacity

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 28 games
32%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Stojkov · 28 games
36%
Puck
Pucksignature
Stojkov · 25 games
60%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 25 games
52%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Nefrit · 24 games
63%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Retsu · 24 games
58%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Pablo · 24 games
58%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Nefrit · 24 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
503 picks · 546 bans
49%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
458 picks · 501 bans
56%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
428 picks · 224 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
384 picks · 276 bans
46%
Tusk
Tusk
380 picks · 369 bans
48%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
366 picks · 807 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
353 picks · 531 bans
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
352 picks · 521 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 54%
Hero pool strength50% TNL DOTA
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total51% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:35
TNL DOTA 51%Zero Tenacity 49%
The model gave 51% on TNL DOTA — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 51:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fienddualrazee
52% · 101 game49% · 45 games
SlarkNande
Slark
Lifestealer
Lifestealeryowaai
62% · 58 games39% · 114 games
Queen of PainStojkov
Queen of Pain
Pangolier
PangolierNorma
47% · 263 games61% · 87 games
ChenSe
Chen
Bane
Baneflacko
54% · 31 game50% · 72 games
AxeNefrit
Axe
Marci
MarciFernans
44% · 78 games49% · 213 games
Dark Willowyamich
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction missed48:29
TNL DOTA 47%Zero Tenacity 53%
The model gave 53% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by TNL DOTA in 1:07:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainNorma
48% · 163 games46% · 155 games
MedusaNande
Medusa
Doom
Doomyowaai
51% · 321 game54% · 238 games
Storm SpiritStojkov
Storm Spirit
Invoker
Invokerdualrazee
47% · 193 games55% · 149 games
Dark SeerNefrit
Dark Seer
Marci
MarciFernans
45% · 178 games51% · 322 games
Tuskyamich
Tusk
Warlock
Warlockflacko
47% · 184 games55% · 175 games
EnchantressSe
Enchantress
Game 3prediction missed35:25
TNL DOTA 49%Zero Tenacity 51%
The model gave 51% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by TNL DOTA in 36:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeyowaai
44% · 181 game52% · 67 games
WeaverNande
Weaver
Queen of Pain
Queen of Paindualrazee
47% · 127 games53% · 46 games
Death ProphetNefrit
Death Prophet
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerNorma
46% · 142 games52% · 133 games
KunkkaStojkov
Kunkka
Marci
MarciFernans
46% · 142 games50% · 256 games
Tuskyamich
Tusk
Bane
Baneflacko
56% · 57 games55% · 147 games
EnchantressSe
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 51%
Series resultTNL DOTA 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3