?
arrow_backBack to match
European Pro League Season 27 · BO3
result vs prediction
Level UPwin 2:0
series probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Runa Teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Level UP

Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
MaTson · 10 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
MaTson · 7 games
57%
Leshrac
Leshrac
Atoufix · 7 games
43%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Ponlo · 7 games
71%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Atoufix · 6 games
67%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
krol9ash · 5 games
60%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Ankou · 5 games
40%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
krol9ash · 5 games
80%

Runa Team

Windranger
Windranger
queezy · 31 game
45%
Tiny
Tinysignature
nicky`cool · 28 games
64%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Hduo · 17 games
47%
Batrider
Batridersignature
queezy · 17 games
71%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 16 games
63%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Alberkaaa · 15 games
53%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Shigetsu · 15 games
67%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
Hduo · 14 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
503 picks · 541 bans
49%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
454 picks · 498 bans
56%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
432 picks · 225 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
386 picks · 278 bans
46%
Tusk
Tusk
378 picks · 366 bans
48%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
366 picks · 807 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
354 picks · 527 bans
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
354 picks · 519 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 62%
Hero pool strength54% Runa Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% Runa Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:24
Level UP 33%Runa Team 67%
The model gave 67% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Level UP in 35:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealerrubikon155
57% · 53 games49% · 91 game
Shadow FiendShigetsu
Shadow Fiend
Leshrac
LeshracMaTson
46% · 34 games44% · 38 games
Death Prophetnicky`cool
Death Prophet
Underlord
Underlordkrol9ash
38% · 59 games35% · 41 game
AxeAlberkaaa
Axe
Batrider
BatriderAtoufix
56% · 239 games50% · 201 game
Dark Willowqueezy
Dark Willow
Warlock
WarlockPonlo
46% · 67 games67% · 81 game
Naga SirenHduo
Naga Siren
Game 2prediction missed24:21
Level UP 34%Runa Team 66%
The model gave 66% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Level UP in 36:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusarubikon155
50% · 198 games43% · 54 games
Drow RangerShigetsu
Drow Ranger
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainMaTson
43% · 150 games46% · 250 games
BeastmasterAlberkaaa
Beastmaster
Enigma
Enigmakrol9ash
61% · 181 game49% · 303 games
Tinynicky`cool
Tiny
Marci
MarciAtoufix
40% · 122 games53% · 241 game
Dark Willowqueezy
Dark Willow
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanPonlo
58% · 261 game50% · 64 games
UndyingHduo
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteRuna Team · 78%
Series resultLevel UP 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2