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European Pro League Season 27 · BO3
result vs prediction
TNL DOTAwin 2:1
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Kalmychataloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TNL DOTA

Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Fernans · 13 games
62%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
dualrazee · 10 games
50%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
dualrazee · 10 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
Fernans · 10 games
20%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Norma · 9 games
78%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
flacko · 7 games
100%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
yowaai · 6 games
17%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
yowaai · 6 games
50%

Kalmychata

Sven
Svensignature
rincyq · 6 games
67%
Mars
Marsoften banned
fortniteMan · 5 games
60%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knight
Ponlo · 4 games
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
not me · 4 games
100%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Mirage · 4 games
75%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
aik · 3 games
100%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
xn丶e · 3 games
33%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
aik · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
504 picks · 539 bans
49%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
452 picks · 496 bans
56%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
430 picks · 223 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
385 picks · 280 bans
46%
Tusk
Tusk
374 picks · 365 bans
48%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
365 picks · 803 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
354 picks · 524 bans
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
354 picks · 516 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 71%
Hero pool strength53% Kalmychata
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% TNL DOTA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:29
TNL DOTA 54%Kalmychata 46%
The model gave 54% on TNL DOTA — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 53:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
Muertayowaai
46% · 317 games48% · 274 games
Terrorbladerincyq
Terrorblade
Invoker
Invokerdualrazee
50% · 177 games52% · 198 games
TimbersawmeLes
Timbersaw
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerNorma
46% · 187 games55% · 314 games
Dragon Knightxn丶e
Dragon Knight
Undying
Undyingflacko
50% · 64 games55% · 49 games
Grimstrokenot me
Grimstroke
Batrider
BatriderFernans
49% · 297 games51% · 207 games
Lichaik
Lich
Game 2prediction correct49:37
TNL DOTA 51%Kalmychata 49%
The model gave 51% on TNL DOTA — the game was taken by TNL DOTA in 45:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealeryowaai
47% · 73 games56% · 106 games
Shadow Fiendxn丶e
Shadow Fiend
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritdualrazee
47% · 198 games58% · 181 game
TimbersawmeLes
Timbersaw
Night Stalker
Night StalkerNorma
45% · 56 games48% · 97 games
Slardarrincyq
Slardar
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetflacko
42% · 179 games55% · 189 games
Ringmasternot me
Ringmaster
Tusk
TuskFernans
47% · 284 games56% · 217 games
Shadow Shamanaik
Shadow Shaman
Game 3prediction correct30:34
TNL DOTA 56%Kalmychata 44%
The model gave 56% on TNL DOTA — the game was taken by TNL DOTA in 41:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusayowaai
49% · 148 games46% · 73 games
Death Prophetxn丶e
Death Prophet
Batrider
Batriderdualrazee
54% · 276 games47% · 136 games
Windrangerrincyq
Windranger
Undying
UndyingNorma
45% · 82 games51% · 184 games
DawnbreakermeLes
Dawnbreaker
Dark Willow
Dark WillowFernans
57% · 283 games46% · 111 games
Snapfirenot me
Snapfire
Bane
Baneflacko
53% · 60 games49% · 345 games
Tuskaik
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteTNL DOTA · 58%
Series resultTNL DOTA 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3