Prime Time vs 4Pirates — prediction ЧРСD 2025 2 · Dota 2

arrow_backBack to match

Чемпионат России Сбера 2025 по Dota 2 · BO3

result vs prediction

PTPrime Timeloss 0:2

series probability

7%93%

probability at match start · final 0:2

4Pirateswin 2:0

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Prime Time

No games played over 6 months.

4Pirates

Shadow Shamanoften banned

PERDAN4IK · 25 games

52%

Pangolieroften banned

NattyNarwhal · 23 games

43%

Snipersignature

NattyNarwhal · 19 games

68%

Tinyoften banned

NattyNarwhal · 19 games

53%

Dawnbreakersignature

Otaker · 17 games

76%

Jakiro

PERDAN4IK · 17 games

59%

Nature's Prophetsignature

ariel · 16 games

63%

Batridersignature

ariel · 15 games

73%

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Tiny

505 picks · 541 bans

49%

Shadow Shaman

451 picks · 495 bans

56%

Ringmaster

431 picks · 227 bans

52%

Jakiro

386 picks · 284 bans

46%

Tusk

374 picks · 365 bans

48%

Terrorblade

365 picks · 806 bans

47%

Storm Spirit

355 picks · 517 bans

49%

Pangolier

353 picks · 526 bans

50%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)40% vs 71%

Hero pool strength56% 4Pirates

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total93% 4Pirates

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct22:39

Prime Time 21%4Pirates 79%

The model gave 79% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 37:59.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo