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CCT Season 2 Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Passion UAloss 1:2
series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Zero Tenacitywin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Passion UA

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
niche · 23 games
35%
Muerta
Muerta
Fernans · 19 games
53%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Batyuk · 17 games
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Crystallize · 16 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
QBFY · 14 games
21%
Phoenix
Phoenix
kreker · 14 games
36%
Windranger
Windranger
QBFY · 13 games
31%
Jakiro
Jakiro
kreker · 12 games
33%

Zero Tenacity

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 29 games
31%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Stojkov · 28 games
36%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 25 games
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Retsu · 24 games
58%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Pablo · 24 games
58%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Stojkov · 24 games
58%
Rubick
Rubick
Pablo · 24 games
46%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Nefrit · 23 games
61%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
506 picks · 542 bans
49%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
449 picks · 495 bans
56%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
433 picks · 229 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
387 picks · 287 bans
46%
Tusk
Tusk
375 picks · 363 bans
48%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
367 picks · 808 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
356 picks · 516 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
354 picks · 525 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)32% vs 54%
Hero pool strength55% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head3 – 4
Model total68% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:40
Passion UA 41%Zero Tenacity 59%
The model gave 59% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 25:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinCrystallize
47% · 169 games46% · 262 games
GyrocopterNande
Gyrocopter
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiMoonlight
55% · 109 games48% · 58 games
Death ProphetNefrit
Death Prophet
Brewmaster
BrewmasterBatyuk
51% · 102 games54% · 210 games
Ember SpiritStojkov
Ember Spirit
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakerkreker
45% · 237 games55% · 114 games
Naga SirenSe
Naga Siren
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanQBFY
51% · 232 games47% · 205 games
Dark Willowyamich
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction missed41:29
Passion UA 36%Zero Tenacity 64%
The model gave 64% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Passion UA in 44:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonBatyuk
42% · 103 games55% · 164 games
Templar AssassinStojkov
Templar Assassin
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendMoonlight
47% · 141 game57% · 196 games
Monkey KingNande
Monkey King
Tiny
TinyCrystallize
45% · 363 games59% · 131 game
EnigmaNefrit
Enigma
Dark Willow
Dark WillowQBFY
44% · 237 games53% · 16 games
Pudgeyamich
Pudge
Oracle
Oraclekreker
51% · 53 games50% · 390 games
BatriderSe
Batrider
Game 3prediction correct21:28
Passion UA 36%Zero Tenacity 64%
The model gave 64% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 48:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonCrystallize
52% · 179 games57% · 234 games
BristlebackNefrit
Bristleback
Timbersaw
TimbersawBatyuk
45% · 223 games48% · 153 games
PuckStojkov
Puck
Death Prophet
Death ProphetMoonlight
48% · 81 game48% · 149 games
DoomNande
Doom
Warlock
Warlockkreker
46% · 207 games58% · 152 games
Shadow Shamanyamich
Shadow Shaman
Lion
LionQBFY
48% · 237 games49% · 239 games
BatriderSe
Batrider
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 68%
Series resultZero Tenacity 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3