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European Pro League Season 27 · BO3
result vs prediction
4Piratesloss 1:2
series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 1:2
TNL DOTAwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

4Pirates

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
PERDAN4IK · 24 games
54%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 23 games
43%
Sniper
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 19 games
68%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 19 games
53%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Otaker · 17 games
76%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
PERDAN4IK · 16 games
63%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
ariel · 16 games
63%
Batrider
Batridersignature
ariel · 15 games
73%

TNL DOTA

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Fernans · 11 games
55%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
dualrazee · 10 games
50%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
dualrazee · 10 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
flacko · 9 games
22%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Norma · 7 games
86%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
yowaai · 6 games
17%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
yowaai · 6 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Fernans · 5 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
508 picks · 539 bans
49%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
446 picks · 493 bans
56%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
434 picks · 230 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
389 picks · 288 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
375 picks · 360 bans
49%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
365 picks · 808 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
357 picks · 514 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
351 picks · 528 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)74% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% 4Pirates
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total77% 4Pirates
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:46
4Pirates 63%TNL DOTA 37%
The model gave 63% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by TNL DOTA in 46:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeOtaker
45% · 255 games48% · 91 game
Lifestealeryowaai
Lifestealer
Puck
PuckNattyNarwhal
46% · 239 games55% · 205 games
Monkey Kingdualrazee
Monkey King
Kunkka
Kunkkaмистер мораль
46% · 155 games60% · 183 games
Naga Sirenflacko
Naga Siren
Earthshaker
Earthshakerariel
48% · 146 games54% · 252 games
MagnusNorma
Magnus
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanPERDAN4IK
51% · 195 games48% · 259 games
Dark WillowFernans
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction correct37:23
4Pirates 63%TNL DOTA 37%
The model gave 63% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 35:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNattyNarwhal
47% · 369 games51% · 133 games
Dark SeerNorma
Dark Seer
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeOtaker
47% · 369 games42% · 321 game
Pangolierdualrazee
Pangolier
Axe
Axeмистер мораль
57% · 80 games52% · 203 games
Gyrocopteryowaai
Gyrocopter
Pugna
Pugnaariel
50% · 144 games48% · 229 games
TuskFernans
Tusk
Bane
BanePERDAN4IK
64% · 81 game44% · 157 games
Ringmasterflacko
Ringmaster
Game 3prediction missed11:33
4Pirates 63%TNL DOTA 37%
The model gave 63% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by TNL DOTA in 41:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Underlord
UnderlordOtaker
41% · 104 games48% · 82 games
Lunayowaai
Luna
Timbersaw
Timbersawмистер мораль
52% · 213 games54% · 186 games
Storm Spiritdualrazee
Storm Spirit
Void Spirit
Void SpiritNattyNarwhal
46% · 110 games48% · 232 games
PangolierNorma
Pangolier
Jakiro
Jakiroariel
48% · 269 games63% · 78 games
Naga Sirenflacko
Naga Siren
Dazzle
DazzlePERDAN4IK
55% · 24 games49% · 142 games
Dark WillowFernans
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favorite4Pirates · 77%
Series resultTNL DOTA 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3