?
arrow_backBack to match
FISSURE Universe: Episode 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONwin 2:0
series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Aurora Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PARIVISION

Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Satanic · 38 games
76%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
DM · 29 games
83%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Dukalis · 29 games
69%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
Satanic · 26 games
73%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
No[o]ne · 23 games
74%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
No[o]ne · 22 games
55%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Dukalis · 21 game
81%
Slark
Slarksignature
9Class · 21 game
81%

Aurora Gaming

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Nightfall · 42 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
Mira · 31 game
58%
Magnus
Magnussignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 30 games
73%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Mira · 30 games
53%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Panto · 24 games
50%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
Nightfall · 23 games
61%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Mira · 23 games
78%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
kiyotaka · 22 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
508 picks · 539 bans
49%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
445 picks · 493 bans
56%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
434 picks · 230 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
389 picks · 288 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
375 picks · 360 bans
49%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
364 picks · 807 bans
48%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
357 picks · 514 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
351 picks · 528 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)74% vs 49%
Hero pool strength57% PARIVISION
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total81% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:15
PARIVISION 70%Aurora Gaming 30%
The model gave 70% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 36:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerSatanic
59% · 85 games42% · 122 games
TerrorbladeNightfall
Terrorblade
Leshrac
LeshracNo[o]ne
58% · 51 game49% · 78 games
Shadow FiendLorenof
Shadow Fiend
Undying
UndyingDM
61% · 73 games53% · 35 games
AxeTORONTOTOKYO
Axe
Pugna
PugnaDukalis
53% · 84 games41% · 67 games
WarlockPanto
Warlock
Rubick
Rubick9Class
44% · 121 game45% · 112 games
Dark WillowMira
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction correct30:33
PARIVISION 69%Aurora Gaming 31%
The model gave 69% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 54:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaSatanic
47% · 93 games44% · 176 games
SvenNightfall
Sven
Puck
PuckNo[o]ne
53% · 148 games49% · 61 game
Leshrackiyotaka
Leshrac
Dark Seer
Dark SeerDM
52% · 207 games47% · 123 games
DawnbreakerTORONTOTOKYO
Dawnbreaker
Slark
Slark9Class
53% · 54 games50% · 52 games
DisruptorPanto
Disruptor
Pugna
PugnaDukalis
45% · 66 games58% · 156 games
Shadow ShamanMira
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 81%
Series resultPARIVISION 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2