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European Pro League Season 27 · BO3
result vs prediction
Kalmychatawin 2:1
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Level UPloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Kalmychata

Sven
Svensignature
rincyq · 6 games
67%
Mars
Marsoften banned
fortniteMan · 5 games
60%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knight
Ponlo · 4 games
50%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Mirage · 4 games
75%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
not me · 3 games
100%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
rincyq · 3 games
100%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
meLes · 3 games
33%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
aik · 2 games
100%

Level UP

Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
MaTson · 8 games
63%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
rubikon155 · 6 games
50%
Leshrac
Leshrac
Atoufix · 6 games
50%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Ankou · 5 games
40%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
krol9ash · 5 games
80%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
MaTson · 5 games
40%
Mirana
Mirana
Ponlo · 5 games
80%
Puck
Puckoften banned
MaTson · 5 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
510 picks · 536 bans
49%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
444 picks · 493 bans
56%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
433 picks · 230 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
389 picks · 290 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
373 picks · 359 bans
49%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
365 picks · 806 bans
48%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
356 picks · 514 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
351 picks · 526 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 47%
Hero pool strength55% Kalmychata
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Kalmychata
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:35
Kalmychata 52%Level UP 48%
The model gave 52% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Level UP in 31:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinrincyq
49% · 165 games47% · 205 games
Medusarubikon155
Medusa
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritxn丶e
45% · 244 games51% · 322 games
Dragon KnightMaTson
Dragon Knight
Axe
AxemeLes
49% · 36 games54% · 120 games
Brewmasterkrol9ash
Brewmaster
Dark Willow
Dark Willownot me
43% · 180 games59% · 125 games
MiranaPonlo
Mirana
Tusk
Tuskaik
49% · 322 games54% · 175 games
RingmasterAtoufix
Ringmaster
Game 2prediction correct37:24
Kalmychata 51%Level UP 49%
The model gave 51% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 31:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinxn丶e
48% · 87 games51% · 165 games
Ursarubikon155
Ursa
Lifestealer
LifestealerKiritych
54% · 81 game48% · 200 games
Centaur Warrunnerkrol9ash
Centaur Warrunner
Dark Seer
Dark SeermeLes
53% · 169 games45% · 109 games
Queen of PainMaTson
Queen of Pain
Tusk
Tusknot me
47% · 281 game49% · 130 games
MarciAtoufix
Marci
Ringmaster
Ringmasteraik
50% · 109 games57% · 123 games
Naga SirenPonlo
Naga Siren
Game 3prediction correct43:33
Kalmychata 52%Level UP 48%
The model gave 52% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 47:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingKiritych
53% · 178 games48% · 370 games
Terrorbladerubikon155
Terrorblade
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritxn丶e
47% · 224 games45% · 207 games
Queen of PainMaTson
Queen of Pain
Pangolier
PangoliermeLes
49% · 292 games49% · 246 games
Centaur Warrunnerkrol9ash
Centaur Warrunner
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamannot me
52% · 145 games52% · 101 game
LeshracAtoufix
Leshrac
Batrider
Batrideraik
49% · 227 games58% · 142 games
MiranaPonlo
Mirana
Model check result
Model favoriteKalmychata · 54%
Series resultKalmychata 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3