European Pro League Season 27 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Lynxloss 0:2series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Level UPwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Lynx
Tidehunteroften banned
StoneBank · 6 games
Slardar
StoneBank · 4 games
Bristlebackoften banned
StoneBank · 3 games
Medusaoften banned
DarkLord^ · 3 games
Morphlingoften banned
DarkLord^ · 3 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
DarkLord^ · 3 games
Wraith King
StoneBank · 3 games
Abaddonoften banned
StoneBank · 2 games
Level UP
Queen of Painsignature
MaTson · 8 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Ankou · 5 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
krol9ash · 5 games
Earthshaker
MaTson · 5 games
Leshrac
Atoufix · 5 games
Mirana
Ponlo · 5 games
Puckoften banned
MaTson · 5 games
Ringmaster
Atoufix · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
515 picks · 536 bans
Shadow Shaman
444 picks · 493 bans
Ringmaster
438 picks · 231 bans
Jakiro
392 picks · 292 bans
Tusk
375 picks · 359 bans
Terrorblade
369 picks · 807 bans
Storm Spirit
357 picks · 517 bans
Pangolier
353 picks · 527 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 43%
Hero pool strength55% Level UP
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Level UP
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:30
Team Lynx 47%Level UP 53%
The model gave 53% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 40:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven7jesu
Ursarubikon155
Monkey Kingmellojul
Brewmasterkrol9ash
AxeStoneBank
Dragon KnightMaTson
55% · 84 games
Naga SirenPonlo
43% · 37 games
LeshracAtoufix
Game 2prediction correct21:35
Team Lynx 49%Level UP 51%
The model gave 51% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 39:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer7jesu
Dragon Knightrubikon155
Storm Spiritmellojul
Centaur Warrunnerkrol9ash
DawnbreakerStoneBank
PangolierMaTson
47% · 95 games
WarlockPonlo
55% · 175 games
BatriderAtoufix
Model check result
Model favoriteLevel UP · 57%
Series resultLevel UP 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2