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FISSURE Universe: Episode 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONloss 0:2
series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Liquidwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PARIVISION

Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Satanic · 37 games
78%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Dukalis · 29 games
69%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
DM · 28 games
86%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
Satanic · 26 games
73%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
No[o]ne · 22 games
77%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
No[o]ne · 21 game
57%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Dukalis · 21 game
81%
Slark
Slarksignature
9Class · 21 game
81%

Team Liquid

Tiny
Tinysignature
miCKe · 43 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
iNSaNiA · 31 game
68%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 29 games
69%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Boxi · 25 games
68%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SabeRLight- · 24 games
54%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Boxi · 22 games
41%
Silencer
Silencer
iNSaNiA · 22 games
59%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 22 games
41%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
513 picks · 541 bans
49%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
441 picks · 231 bans
52%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
441 picks · 493 bans
56%
Jakiro
Jakiro
394 picks · 296 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
375 picks · 355 bans
48%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
371 picks · 810 bans
48%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
357 picks · 518 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
352 picks · 528 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)76% vs 49%
Hero pool strength60% PARIVISION
Head-to-head11 – 2
Model total81% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:32
PARIVISION 68%Team Liquid 32%
The model gave 68% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 31:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeSatanic
45% · 288 games50% · 339 games
GyrocoptermiCKe
Gyrocopter
Beastmaster
BeastmasterDM
49% · 427 games51% · 233 games
PuckNisha
Puck
Monkey King
Monkey KingNo[o]ne
54% · 269 games55% · 162 games
EnigmaSabeRLight-
Enigma
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin9Class
58% · 147 games44% · 180 games
DawnbreakerTobi
Dawnbreaker
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernDukalis
56% · 17 games43% · 234 games
Dark WillowBoxi
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction missed9:29
PARIVISION 70%Team Liquid 30%
The model gave 70% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 27:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendSatanic
48% · 144 games51% · 258 games
DoommiCKe
Doom
Bristleback
BristlebackDM
54% · 305 games54% · 61 game
HuskarNisha
Huskar
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNo[o]ne
47% · 273 games57% · 170 games
Dark SeerSabeRLight-
Dark Seer
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerDukalis
43% · 150 games50% · 150 games
WarlockTobi
Warlock
Marci
Marci9Class
45% · 134 games51% · 367 games
TuskBoxi
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 81%
Series resultTeam Liquid 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2