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FISSURE Universe: Episode 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Tideboundloss 0:2
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Heroicwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Tidebound

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
shiro · 34 games
76%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
y` · 31 game
65%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
shiro · 22 games
64%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
NothingToSay · 22 games
45%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Faith_bian · 21 game
57%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 18 games
72%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Faith_bian · 17 games
41%
Muerta
Muerta
y` · 16 games
50%

Heroic

Magnus
Magnussignature
Wisper · 28 games
61%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 27 games
67%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Scofield · 25 games
60%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
KJ · 23 games
78%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
4nalog · 21 game
57%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
4nalog · 20 games
40%
Muerta
Muerta
Scofield · 20 games
55%
Jakiro
Jakiro
KJ · 17 games
29%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
515 picks · 543 bans
49%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
442 picks · 489 bans
55%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
440 picks · 231 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
396 picks · 296 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
375 picks · 358 bans
48%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
372 picks · 812 bans
48%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
358 picks · 518 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
350 picks · 529 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 48%
Hero pool strength51% Team Tidebound
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total67% Team Tidebound
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:22
Team Tidebound 58%Heroic 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Heroic in 42:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursashiro
52% · 132 games57% · 157 games
Templar AssassinYuma
Templar Assassin
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNothingToSay
49% · 202 games50% · 248 games
Dark SeerWisper
Dark Seer
Axe
AxeFaith_bian
44% · 45 games49% · 118 games
Shadow Fiend4nalog
Shadow Fiend
Jakiro
JakiropLAnet
51% · 274 games58% · 131 game
EarthshakerScofield
Earthshaker
Warlock
Warlocky`
37% · 129 games52% · 128 games
AbaddonKJ
Abaddon
Game 2prediction missed32:36
Team Tidebound 58%Heroic 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Heroic in 1:02:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightNothingToSay
51% · 272 games51% · 183 games
Templar AssassinYuma
Templar Assassin
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendshiro
44% · 142 games58% · 267 games
Puck4nalog
Puck
Pangolier
PangolierFaith_bian
45% · 366 games51% · 73 games
LycanWisper
Lycan
Snapfire
SnapfirepLAnet
47% · 133 games53% · 436 games
ClockwerkScofield
Clockwerk
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magiy`
45% · 114 games54% · 68 games
UndyingKJ
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tidebound · 67%
Series resultHeroic 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2