zxcursed Team vs By_Owl Team — prediction SL# · Dota 2

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Streamers League #2 · BO3

result vs prediction

zxcursed Teamloss 0:2

series probability

30%70%

probability at match start · final 0:2

By_Owl Teamwin 2:0

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

zxcursed Team

No games played over 6 months.

By_Owl Team

Dazzle

by_Owl · 3 games

67%

Invokeroften banned

avice · 3 games

100%

Juggernaut

Koma` · 3 games

67%

Keeper of the Lightoften banned

reira · 3 games

67%

Luna

Koma` · 3 games

100%

Phantom Assassin

Koma` · 3 games

33%

Rubick

rostikfacekid · 3 games

67%

Warlock

by_Owl · 3 games

33%

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Hoodwink

631 picks · 444 bans

53%

Rubick

597 picks · 340 bans

48%

Pangolier

436 picks · 643 bans

51%

Phoenix

423 picks · 490 bans

49%

Tiny

397 picks · 356 bans

50%

Storm Spirit

337 picks · 381 bans

47%

Ember Spirit

334 picks · 497 bans

51%

Puck

318 picks · 977 bans

60%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)50% vs 55%

Hero pool strength54% By_Owl Team

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total70% By_Owl Team

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct41:50

zxcursed Team 39%By_Owl Team 61%

The model gave 61% on By_Owl Team — the game was taken by By_Owl Team in 56:26.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo