European Pro League Season 27 · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarinewin 2:0series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
eSpoiledloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yellow Submarine
Tinyoften banned
re1bl · 16 games
Batrideroften banned
mrls · 11 games
Muertasignature
mrls · 9 games
Dark Willowsignature
mrls · 8 games
Doomoften banned
ififall · 8 games
Ringmastersignature
Xakoda · 8 games
Timbersawoften banned
ififall · 8 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
ififall · 7 games
eSpoiled
Tusk
Wein · 8 games
Windranger
Wein · 8 games
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Wein · 6 games
Bane
asdekor_r · 5 games
Sven
ssnovv1 · 5 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
ssnovv1 · 5 games
Batrideroften banned
Wein · 4 games
Drow Rangeroften banned
ssnovv1 · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
522 picks · 552 bans
Ringmaster
449 picks · 233 bans
Shadow Shaman
441 picks · 486 bans
Jakiro
399 picks · 313 bans
Tusk
379 picks · 361 bans
Terrorblade
376 picks · 825 bans
Storm Spirit
362 picks · 524 bans
Pangolier
352 picks · 532 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 54%
Hero pool strength50% eSpoiled
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:37
Yellow Submarine 63%eSpoiled 37%
The model gave 63% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 51:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muertabottega
Terrorbladessnovv1
PuckMirele
MarciWein
BrewmasterInfernal
Baneasdekor_r
DisruptorXakoda
Tuskmrls
Game 2prediction correct43:18
Yellow Submarine 65%eSpoiled 35%
The model gave 65% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 35:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TimbersawInfernal
Morphlingssnovv1
Lifestealerbottega
Undyingasdekor_r
Ember SpiritMirele
Dark WillowWein
Nature's ProphetXakoda
Tuskmrls
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 76%
Series resultYellow Submarine 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2