FISSURE Universe: Episode 5 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Heroicloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Liquid
Tinysignature
miCKe · 43 games
Jakirosignature
iNSaNiA · 31 game
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 28 games
Muertasignature
Boxi · 25 games
Beastmasteroften banned
SabeRLight- · 24 games
Silencer
iNSaNiA · 22 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 22 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
miCKe · 22 games
Heroic
Magnussignature
Wisper · 28 games
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 27 games
Shadow Shamansignature
Scofield · 24 games
Phoenixsignature
KJ · 23 games
Beastmasteroften banned
4nalog · 21 game
Monkey Kingoften banned
4nalog · 20 games
Muerta
Scofield · 20 games
Jakiro
KJ · 17 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
522 picks · 552 bans
Ringmaster
451 picks · 233 bans
Shadow Shaman
439 picks · 486 bans
Jakiro
400 picks · 314 bans
Tusk
379 picks · 359 bans
Terrorblade
377 picks · 826 bans
Storm Spirit
363 picks · 524 bans
Pangolier
352 picks · 532 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 52%
Hero pool strength52% Heroic
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total71% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct43:23
Team Liquid 62%Heroic 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 28:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetmiCKe
MeepoYuma
LycanNisha
Queen of Pain4nalog
UnderlordSabeRLight-
AxeWisper
UndyingTobi
WarlockKJ
Shadow ShamanBoxi
Skywrath MageScofield
Game 2prediction correct36:20
Team Liquid 61%Heroic 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 42:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetmiCKe
LinaYuma
Ember SpiritNisha
EnigmaWisper
UndyingSabeRLight-
Kunkka4nalog
Naga SirenTobi
EarthshakerScofield
RubickBoxi
Shadow ShamanKJ
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 71%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2