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FISSURE Universe: Episode 5 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Yandexloss 1:1
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Shopify Rebellionloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Yandex

Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 3 games
67%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
TA2000 · 3 games
33%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
prblms · 2 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
prblms · 2 games
50%
Dazzle
Dazzle
Noticed · 2 games
0%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Noticed · 2 games
0%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 2 games
0%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
TA2000 · 1 game
0%

Shopify Rebellion

Tiny
Tinysignature
Yopaj · 21 game
76%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Yopaj · 18 games
72%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Timado · 17 games
53%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Timado · 17 games
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Timado · 16 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Timado · 15 games
53%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Yopaj · 15 games
33%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Hellscream · 14 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
522 picks · 551 bans
49%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
451 picks · 233 bans
51%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
439 picks · 486 bans
56%
Jakiro
Jakiro
400 picks · 314 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
378 picks · 359 bans
48%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
377 picks · 826 bans
48%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
362 picks · 523 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
351 picks · 531 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 44%
Hero pool strength56% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:12
Team Yandex 42%Shopify Rebellion 58%
The model gave 58% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 46:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
KunkkaTA2000
48% · 119 games50% · 177 games
GyrocopterTimado
Gyrocopter
Death Prophet
Death ProphetChira JUNIOR
47% · 28 games59% · 89 games
Keeper of the LightYopaj
Keeper of the Light
Dazzle
DazzleNoticed
53% · 22 games63% · 111 games
EnigmaDavai
Enigma
Tusk
Tuskprblms
42% · 332 games53% · 216 games
ClockwerkHellscream
Clockwerk
Warlock
WarlockSolo
37% · 126 games62% · 34 games
Ogre MagiSkem
Ogre Magi
Game 2prediction correct27:39
Team Yandex 45%Shopify Rebellion 55%
The model gave 55% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 56:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomTA2000
56% · 136 games54% · 343 games
Storm SpiritYopaj
Storm Spirit
Death Prophet
Death ProphetChira JUNIOR
55% · 51 game48% · 147 games
Shadow FiendTimado
Shadow Fiend
Pangolier
PangolierNoticed
39% · 270 games47% · 67 games
AxeDavai
Axe
Warlock
WarlockSolo
42% · 100 games49% · 63 games
LeshracHellscream
Leshrac
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonprblms
55% · 119 games62% · 56 games
BaneSkem
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 59%
Accuracy by game1 of 2