?
arrow_backBack to match
FISSURE Universe: Episode 5 · BO2
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingloss 1:1
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 1:1
AVULUSloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Nightfall · 40 games
53%
Tusk
Tusk
Mira · 31 game
58%
Magnus
Magnussignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 28 games
71%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Mira · 27 games
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Panto · 24 games
50%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
Nightfall · 23 games
61%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Mira · 23 games
78%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
kiyotaka · 22 games
64%

AVULUS

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Stormstormer · 50 games
42%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Fly · 25 games
44%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
dEsire · 25 games
60%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Xibbe · 20 games
30%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Xibbe · 20 games
70%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Xibbe · 18 games
33%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Mo13ei · 18 games
33%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
dEsire · 17 games
35%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
525 picks · 561 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
457 picks · 233 bans
51%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
440 picks · 486 bans
55%
Jakiro
Jakiro
406 picks · 320 bans
46%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
383 picks · 828 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
378 picks · 365 bans
48%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
363 picks · 529 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
355 picks · 537 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 33%
Hero pool strength59% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:49
Aurora Gaming 54%AVULUS 46%
The model gave 54% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by AVULUS in 31:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyNightfall
50% · 378 games49% · 82 games
UrsaSmiling Knight
Ursa
Axe
AxeTORONTOTOKYO
51% · 47 games58% · 117 games
InvokerWorick
Invoker
Death Prophet
Death Prophetkiyotaka
46% · 57 games59% · 62 games
LycanXibbe
Lycan
Marci
MarciMira
45% · 125 games44% · 198 games
TuskdEsire
Tusk
Dazzle
DazzlePanto
52% · 20 games54% · 168 games
Shadow ShamanFly
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction correct47:17
Aurora Gaming 56%AVULUS 44%
The model gave 56% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 42:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
KunkkaNightfall
56% · 183 games47% · 221 game
TerrorbladeSmiling Knight
Terrorblade
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painkiyotaka
54% · 154 games49% · 76 games
Shadow FiendWorick
Shadow Fiend
Undying
UndyingTORONTOTOKYO
51% · 93 games56% · 118 games
EnigmaXibbe
Enigma
Warlock
WarlockPanto
42% · 192 games53% · 177 games
PhoenixFly
Phoenix
Dark Willow
Dark WillowMira
45% · 293 games47% · 323 games
TuskdEsire
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 60%
Accuracy by game1 of 2