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FISSURE Universe: Episode 5 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Yandexloss 1:1
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Yandex

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
prblms · 2 games
50%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Noticed · 2 games
0%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 2 games
50%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
TA2000 · 1 game
0%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
prblms · 1 game
0%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Noticed · 1 game
0%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Noticed · 1 game
100%
Dazzle
Dazzle
Solo · 1 game
0%

Gaimin Gladiators

Muerta
Muertasignature
tOfu · 34 games
68%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Watson · 29 games
55%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Quinn · 27 games
48%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Malady · 26 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Ace · 19 games
42%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Ace · 19 games
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Quinn · 19 games
63%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Quinn · 19 games
37%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
528 picks · 563 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
461 picks · 233 bans
51%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
440 picks · 486 bans
55%
Jakiro
Jakiro
409 picks · 323 bans
46%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
385 picks · 825 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
377 picks · 365 bans
48%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
361 picks · 530 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
357 picks · 536 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 51%
Hero pool strength53% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:44
Team Yandex 42%Gaimin Gladiators 58%
The model gave 58% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 46:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetTA2000
53% · 180 games55% · 249 games
Monkey KingQuinn
Monkey King
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritChira JUNIOR
46% · 281 game47% · 170 games
Centaur WarrunnerAce
Centaur Warrunner
Dazzle
DazzleNoticed
42% · 32 games53% · 170 games
MagnusWatson
Magnus
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonSolo
55% · 175 games49% · 104 games
Ancient ApparitiontOfu
Ancient Apparition
Marci
Marciprblms
48% · 92 games45% · 67 games
LichMalady
Lich
Game 2prediction missed41:30
Team Yandex 47%Gaimin Gladiators 53%
The model gave 53% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 29:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerTA2000
54% · 98 games55% · 109 games
Shadow FiendQuinn
Shadow Fiend
Axe
AxeNoticed
52% · 35 games48% · 147 games
MarsWatson
Mars
Monkey King
Monkey KingChira JUNIOR
55% · 236 games54% · 248 games
PhoenixAce
Phoenix
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSolo
48% · 163 games40% · 295 games
TusktOfu
Tusk
Batrider
Batriderprblms
47% · 331 game50% · 64 games
DisruptorMalady
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 59%
Accuracy by game1 of 2