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FISSURE Universe: Episode 5 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 1:1
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Aurora Gamingloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Tiny
Tinysignature
miCKe · 42 games
69%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
iNSaNiA · 31 game
68%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 27 games
67%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Boxi · 25 games
68%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SabeRLight- · 24 games
54%
Silencer
Silencer
iNSaNiA · 22 games
59%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 22 games
41%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
miCKe · 22 games
45%

Aurora Gaming

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Nightfall · 39 games
54%
Tusk
Tusk
Mira · 31 game
58%
Magnus
Magnussignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 28 games
71%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Mira · 26 games
54%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Panto · 24 games
50%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
Nightfall · 23 games
61%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Mira · 23 games
78%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
kiyotaka · 22 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
526 picks · 563 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
460 picks · 233 bans
51%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
436 picks · 484 bans
56%
Jakiro
Jakiro
409 picks · 323 bans
46%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
384 picks · 822 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
377 picks · 361 bans
48%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
362 picks · 530 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
356 picks · 533 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head4 – 2
Model total52% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:14
Team Liquid 51%Aurora Gaming 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 31:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenmiCKe
55% · 158 games46% · 508 games
TinyNightfall
Tiny
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNisha
51% · 314 games55% · 125 games
Shadow Fiendkiyotaka
Shadow Fiend
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerSabeRLight-
53% · 186 games53% · 141 game
Queen of PainTORONTOTOKYO
Queen of Pain
Warlock
WarlockTobi
46% · 189 games48% · 217 games
Shadow ShamanPanto
Shadow Shaman
Tusk
TuskBoxi
47% · 312 games46% · 168 games
MarciMira
Marci
Game 2prediction missed27:71
Team Liquid 52%Aurora Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 47:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckNisha
60% · 230 games51% · 351 game
Ember Spiritkiyotaka
Ember Spirit
Tiny
TinymiCKe
52% · 417 games44% · 135 games
UrsaNightfall
Ursa
Venomancer
VenomancerSabeRLight-
53% · 28 games38% · 109 games
UnderlordTORONTOTOKYO
Underlord
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanTobi
52% · 168 games50% · 417 games
BatriderMira
Batrider
Dark Willow
Dark WillowBoxi
55% · 230 games42% · 61 game
DisruptorPanto
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 52%
Accuracy by game1 of 2