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FISSURE Universe: Episode 5 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Tideboundloss 1:1
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Shopify Rebellionloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Tidebound

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
shiro · 33 games
76%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
y` · 31 game
65%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
shiro · 22 games
64%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
NothingToSay · 21 game
48%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Faith_bian · 20 games
55%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 17 games
76%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Faith_bian · 16 games
44%
Muerta
Muerta
y` · 16 games
50%

Shopify Rebellion

Tiny
Tinysignature
Yopaj · 21 game
76%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Yopaj · 17 games
71%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Timado · 17 games
53%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Timado · 17 games
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Timado · 16 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Timado · 15 games
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Hellscream · 14 games
71%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Yopaj · 14 games
36%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
527 picks · 564 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
461 picks · 234 bans
51%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
436 picks · 484 bans
56%
Jakiro
Jakiro
410 picks · 324 bans
46%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
384 picks · 823 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
378 picks · 360 bans
48%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
362 picks · 529 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
355 picks · 532 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 45%
Hero pool strength51% Team Tidebound
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Team Tidebound
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:17
Team Tidebound 50%Shopify Rebellion 50%
The model gave 50% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 56:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptershiro
47% · 181 game52% · 174 games
Templar AssassinTimado
Templar Assassin
Brewmaster
BrewmasterFaith_bian
44% · 81 game48% · 140 games
KunkkaYopaj
Kunkka
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNothingToSay
50% · 225 games55% · 73 games
LycanDavai
Lycan
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionpLAnet
56% · 74 games56% · 108 games
ChenSkem
Chen
Dazzle
Dazzley`
40% · 19 games49% · 85 games
MarciHellscream
Marci
Game 2prediction missed12:37
Team Tidebound 53%Shopify Rebellion 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 42:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinshiro
54% · 107 games45% · 136 games
Shadow FiendTimado
Shadow Fiend
Pangolier
PangolierNothingToSay
44% · 267 games52% · 240 games
Ember SpiritYopaj
Ember Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritFaith_bian
62% · 17 games46% · 70 games
AxeDavai
Axe
Magnus
MagnuspLAnet
58% · 142 games41% · 56 games
LeshracHellscream
Leshrac
Chen
Cheny`
58% · 74 games46% · 105 games
Ogre MagiSkem
Ogre Magi
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tidebound · 50%
Accuracy by game0 of 2