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FISSURE Universe: Episode 5 · BO2
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONwin 2:0
series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PARIVISION

Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Satanic · 37 games
78%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Dukalis · 29 games
69%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
DM · 28 games
86%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
Satanic · 26 games
73%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
No[o]ne · 22 games
77%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
No[o]ne · 21 game
57%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Dukalis · 21 game
81%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
Dukalis · 20 games
65%

Gaimin Gladiators

Muerta
Muertasignature
tOfu · 34 games
68%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Watson · 29 games
55%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Quinn · 27 games
48%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Malady · 26 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Ace · 19 games
42%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Ace · 19 games
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Quinn · 19 games
63%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Quinn · 18 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
526 picks · 570 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
463 picks · 235 bans
51%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
436 picks · 483 bans
55%
Jakiro
Jakiro
412 picks · 330 bans
46%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
387 picks · 825 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
377 picks · 362 bans
48%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
365 picks · 532 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
356 picks · 537 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 53%
Hero pool strength62% PARIVISION
Head-to-head4 – 3
Model total77% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:11
PARIVISION 65%Gaimin Gladiators 35%
The model gave 65% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 25:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerSatanic
45% · 46 games50% · 109 games
Shadow FiendWatson
Shadow Fiend
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightNo[o]ne
44% · 215 games43% · 147 games
PuckQuinn
Puck
Dazzle
DazzleDM
55% · 19 games53% · 93 games
KunkkaAce
Kunkka
Marci
Marci9Class
50% · 105 games50% · 79 games
MiranatOfu
Mirana
Chen
ChenDukalis
59% · 69 games64% · 26 games
Treant ProtectorMalady
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction correct33:16
PARIVISION 66%Gaimin Gladiators 34%
The model gave 66% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 33:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendSatanic
53% · 135 games45% · 149 games
Nature's ProphetWatson
Nature's Prophet
Tiny
TinyNo[o]ne
52% · 346 games48% · 222 games
PuckQuinn
Puck
Dazzle
DazzleDM
56% · 35 games52% · 318 games
BristlebackAce
Bristleback
Slark
Slark9Class
56% · 87 games43% · 167 games
SnapfiretOfu
Snapfire
Clockwerk
ClockwerkDukalis
49% · 303 games50% · 50 games
DisruptorMalady
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 77%
Series resultPARIVISION 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2