?
arrow_backBack to match
FISSURE Universe: Episode 5 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0
series probability
89%11%
probability at match start · final 2:0
AVULUSloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Tiny
Tinysignature
miCKe · 41 game
68%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
iNSaNiA · 31 game
68%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 27 games
67%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Boxi · 25 games
68%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SabeRLight- · 23 games
52%
Silencer
Silencer
iNSaNiA · 22 games
59%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 22 games
41%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
miCKe · 22 games
45%

AVULUS

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Stormstormer · 49 games
43%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Fly · 25 games
44%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
dEsire · 23 games
61%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Xibbe · 20 games
30%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Xibbe · 20 games
70%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Xibbe · 18 games
33%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Mo13ei · 18 games
33%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ekki · 16 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
526 picks · 580 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
467 picks · 238 bans
51%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
435 picks · 483 bans
56%
Jakiro
Jakiro
418 picks · 338 bans
46%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
389 picks · 835 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
382 picks · 365 bans
48%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
368 picks · 538 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
358 picks · 540 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 33%
Hero pool strength58% Team Liquid
Head-to-head4 – 0
Model total89% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:7
Team Liquid 73%AVULUS 27%
The model gave 73% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 24:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinymiCKe
47% · 503 games51% · 103 games
Shadow FiendSmiling Knight
Shadow Fiend
Death Prophet
Death ProphetNisha
48% · 59 games50% · 268 games
BeastmasterXibbe
Beastmaster
Axe
AxeSabeRLight-
44% · 64 games55% · 232 games
Ember SpiritWorick
Ember Spirit
Chen
ChenTobi
55% · 112 games51% · 95 games
Naga SirenFly
Naga Siren
Marci
MarciBoxi
46% · 139 games54% · 179 games
Shadow ShamandEsire
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction correct38:13
Team Liquid 74%AVULUS 26%
The model gave 74% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 31:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendmiCKe
43% · 130 games46% · 288 games
GyrocopterSmiling Knight
Gyrocopter
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNisha
41% · 397 games51% · 350 games
TinyWorick
Tiny
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerSabeRLight-
48% · 167 games51% · 115 games
Queen of PainXibbe
Queen of Pain
Undying
UndyingTobi
58% · 85 games53% · 201 game
MagnusdEsire
Magnus
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonBoxi
52% · 216 games64% · 41 game
BaneFly
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 89%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2