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European Pro League Season 27 · BO3
result vs prediction
4Pirateswin 2:0
series probability
90%10%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Hryvnialoss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

4Pirates

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
PERDAN4IK · 23 games
52%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 22 games
41%
Sniper
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 21 game
71%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 19 games
53%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Otaker · 18 games
78%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
PERDAN4IK · 16 games
63%
Batrider
Batridersignature
ariel · 15 games
73%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Otaker · 14 games
71%

Team Hryvnia

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
StoneBank · 2 games
0%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
StoneBank · 1 game
0%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 1 game
100%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
StoneBank · 1 game
0%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Shigetsu · 1 game
100%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
mellojul · 1 game
0%
Puck
Puckoften banned
mellojul · 1 game
0%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
StoneBank · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
526 picks · 582 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
469 picks · 238 bans
51%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
435 picks · 483 bans
56%
Jakiro
Jakiro
418 picks · 340 bans
46%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
389 picks · 837 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
383 picks · 365 bans
48%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
368 picks · 539 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
358 picks · 540 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 25%
Hero pool strength58% 4Pirates
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total90% 4Pirates
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
4Pirates 90%Team Hryvnia 10%
The model gave 90% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates.
Game 2prediction correct
4Pirates 90%Team Hryvnia 10%
The model gave 90% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates.
Model check result
Model favorite4Pirates · 90%
Series result4Pirates 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2