FISSURE Universe: Episode 5 · BO2
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 1:1series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Shopify Rebellionloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Gaimin Gladiators
Muertasignature
tOfu · 33 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Watson · 28 games
Jakiro
Malady · 26 games
Pangolieroften banned
Quinn · 26 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Ace · 19 games
Doomoften banned
Ace · 19 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Quinn · 18 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Quinn · 18 games
Shopify Rebellion
Tinysignature
Yopaj · 21 game
Morphlingoften banned
Timado · 17 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Timado · 17 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Yopaj · 16 games
Dragon Knight
Timado · 15 games
Clockwerksignature
Hellscream · 14 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Timado · 14 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Yopaj · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
526 picks · 582 bans
Ringmaster
469 picks · 238 bans
Shadow Shaman
435 picks · 482 bans
Jakiro
418 picks · 340 bans
Terrorblade
388 picks · 837 bans
Tusk
383 picks · 365 bans
Storm Spirit
368 picks · 539 bans
Pangolier
357 picks · 540 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 47%
Hero pool strength52% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:30
Gaimin Gladiators 47%Shopify Rebellion 53%
The model gave 53% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 26:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeWatson
Templar AssassinTimado
PangolierQuinn
TimbersawDavai
KunkkaAce
Ember SpiritYopaj
Nature's ProphettOfu
ChenSkem
PugnaMalady
LionHellscream
Game 2prediction correct36:16
Gaimin Gladiators 51%Shopify Rebellion 49%
The model gave 51% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 44:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaWatson
Dragon KnightTimado
Ember SpiritQuinn
PuckYopaj
DawnbreakerAce
EnigmaDavai
UndyingMalady
GyrocopterHellscream
MuertatOfu
Ogre MagiSkem
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 52%
Accuracy by game2 of 2