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CCT Season 2 Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
eSpoiledwin 2:1
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 2:1
TNL DOTAloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

eSpoiled

Tusk
Tusk
Wein · 8 games
50%
Windranger
Windranger
Wein · 8 games
25%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Wein · 6 games
50%
Bane
Bane
asdekor_r · 5 games
60%
Sven
Sven
ssnovv1 · 5 games
40%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
ssnovv1 · 5 games
40%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Wein · 4 games
100%
Drow Ranger
Drow Ranger
ssnovv1 · 4 games
50%

TNL DOTA

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Fernans · 9 games
56%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
yowaai · 8 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
flacko · 8 games
13%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Norma · 7 games
43%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Norma · 5 games
20%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Fernans · 5 games
20%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Norma · 5 games
80%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
yowaai · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
525 picks · 589 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
473 picks · 240 bans
51%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
435 picks · 478 bans
56%
Jakiro
Jakiro
419 picks · 348 bans
46%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
391 picks · 839 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
384 picks · 365 bans
48%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
371 picks · 542 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
361 picks · 539 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% eSpoiled
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total61% TNL DOTA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
eSpoiled 39%TNL DOTA 61%
The model gave 61% on TNL DOTA — the game was taken by TNL DOTA.
Game 2prediction missed
eSpoiled 39%TNL DOTA 61%
The model gave 61% on TNL DOTA — the game was taken by eSpoiled.
Game 3prediction missed
eSpoiled 39%TNL DOTA 61%
The model gave 61% on TNL DOTA — the game was taken by eSpoiled.
Model check result
Model favoriteTNL DOTA · 61%
Series resulteSpoiled 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3