FISSURE Universe: Episode 5 · BO2
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Liquidwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nigma Galaxy
Bristlebacksignature
No!ob · 36 games
Tusk
OmaR · 34 games
Elder Titan
GH · 29 games
Magnussignature
SumaiL · 26 games
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 23 games
Beastmasteroften banned
No!ob · 23 games
Morphlingoften banned
Ghost · 23 games
Iooften banned
GH · 22 games
Team Liquid
Tinysignature
miCKe · 41 game
Jakirosignature
iNSaNiA · 31 game
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 27 games
Muertasignature
Boxi · 25 games
Beastmasteroften banned
SabeRLight- · 23 games
Silencer
iNSaNiA · 22 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 22 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
miCKe · 22 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
525 picks · 589 bans
Ringmaster
473 picks · 240 bans
Shadow Shaman
435 picks · 478 bans
Jakiro
418 picks · 348 bans
Terrorblade
390 picks · 839 bans
Tusk
384 picks · 364 bans
Storm Spirit
371 picks · 542 bans
Pangolier
361 picks · 538 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 47%
Hero pool strength52% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head1 – 6
Model total69% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:38
Nigma Galaxy 38%Team Liquid 62%
The model gave 62% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 39:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AbaddonGhost
Templar AssassinmiCKe
Void SpiritSumaiL
Queen of PainNisha
TerrorbladeNo!ob
BrewmasterSabeRLight-
JakiroOmaR
WindrangerBoxi
DisruptorGH
Elder TitanTobi
Game 2prediction correct
Nigma Galaxy 31%Team Liquid 69%
The model gave 69% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 69%
Series resultTeam Liquid 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2