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FISSURE Universe: Episode 5 · BO2
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONloss 1:1
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Shopify Rebellionloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PARIVISION

Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Satanic · 37 games
78%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Dukalis · 29 games
69%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
DM · 28 games
86%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
Satanic · 26 games
73%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
No[o]ne · 21 game
57%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Dukalis · 21 game
81%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
Dukalis · 20 games
65%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
No[o]ne · 20 games
80%

Shopify Rebellion

Tiny
Tinysignature
Yopaj · 21 game
76%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Timado · 17 games
53%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Timado · 17 games
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Yopaj · 16 games
69%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Timado · 15 games
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Hellscream · 14 games
71%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Timado · 14 games
57%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Yopaj · 14 games
36%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
527 picks · 593 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
479 picks · 241 bans
52%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
436 picks · 478 bans
56%
Jakiro
Jakiro
422 picks · 354 bans
46%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
394 picks · 841 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
386 picks · 366 bans
48%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
373 picks · 543 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
362 picks · 538 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)77% vs 50%
Hero pool strength60% PARIVISION
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total68% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:33
PARIVISION 63%Shopify Rebellion 37%
The model gave 63% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 44:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinSatanic
62% · 48 games47% · 119 games
AbaddonTimado
Abaddon
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNo[o]ne
51% · 102 games47% · 102 games
Queen of PainYopaj
Queen of Pain
Beastmaster
BeastmasterDM
54% · 153 games37% · 38 games
AxeDavai
Axe
Warlock
WarlockDukalis
49% · 77 games52% · 54 games
LeshracHellscream
Leshrac
Pudge
Pudge9Class
29% · 3 games48% · 70 games
Ogre MagiSkem
Ogre Magi
Game 2prediction correct31:14
PARIVISION 62%Shopify Rebellion 38%
The model gave 62% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 23:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinSatanic
56% · 68 games51% · 124 games
Shadow FiendYopaj
Shadow Fiend
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNo[o]ne
45% · 83 games55% · 80 games
LifestealerTimado
Lifestealer
Dark Seer
Dark SeerDM
50% · 84 games47% · 46 games
AxeDavai
Axe
Marci
Marci9Class
50% · 74 games45% · 63 games
LeshracHellscream
Leshrac
Chen
ChenDukalis
53% · 35 games49% · 31 game
BaneSkem
Bane
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 68%
Accuracy by game1 of 2