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FISSURE Universe: Episode 5 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Tideboundwin 2:0
series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Tidebound

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
shiro · 33 games
76%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
y` · 30 games
67%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
shiro · 22 games
64%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Faith_bian · 19 games
53%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
NothingToSay · 19 games
42%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 17 games
76%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Faith_bian · 16 games
44%
Muerta
Muerta
y` · 16 games
50%

Gaimin Gladiators

Muerta
Muertasignature
tOfu · 33 games
67%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Watson · 27 games
59%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Malady · 26 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Quinn · 26 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Ace · 19 games
42%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Ace · 19 games
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Quinn · 18 games
61%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Ace · 18 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
528 picks · 594 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
480 picks · 242 bans
52%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
436 picks · 476 bans
56%
Jakiro
Jakiro
422 picks · 353 bans
46%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
394 picks · 842 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
385 picks · 367 bans
48%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
373 picks · 547 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
362 picks · 536 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 57%
Hero pool strength53% Team Tidebound
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total68% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:6
Team Tidebound 41%Gaimin Gladiators 59%
The model gave 59% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 29:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
Weavershiro
51% · 77 games46% · 145 games
UrsaWatson
Ursa
Beastmaster
BeastmasterFaith_bian
50% · 218 games37% · 138 games
AbaddonAce
Abaddon
Tiny
TinyNothingToSay
53% · 304 games44% · 128 games
Queen of PainQuinn
Queen of Pain
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionpLAnet
60% · 101 game46% · 170 games
EarthshakertOfu
Earthshaker
Naga Siren
Naga Sireny`
57% · 85 games55% · 204 games
WarlockMalady
Warlock
Game 2prediction missed25:1
Team Tidebound 41%Gaimin Gladiators 59%
The model gave 59% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 22:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendshiro
50% · 88 games44% · 249 games
TerrorbladeWatson
Terrorblade
Enigma
EnigmaFaith_bian
59% · 117 games44% · 221 game
PuckQuinn
Puck
Monkey King
Monkey KingNothingToSay
55% · 171 game42% · 56 games
AxeAce
Axe
Dazzle
Dazzley`
61% · 23 games47% · 78 games
TinkerMalady
Tinker
Tiny
TinypLAnet
50% · 384 games49% · 179 games
Shadow ShamantOfu
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 68%
Series resultTeam Tidebound 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2