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European Pro League Season 27 · BO3
result vs prediction
TNL DOTAloss 1:2
series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 1:2
eSpoiledwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TNL DOTA

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Fernans · 9 games
56%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
yowaai · 8 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Norma · 7 games
43%
Tusk
Tusk
flacko · 7 games
14%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
yowaai · 5 games
40%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
yowaai · 5 games
20%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
Norma · 4 games
75%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Norma · 4 games
100%

eSpoiled

Tusk
Tusk
Wein · 8 games
50%
Windranger
Windranger
Wein · 8 games
25%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Wein · 5 games
60%
Sven
Sven
ssnovv1 · 5 games
40%
Drow Ranger
Drow Ranger
ssnovv1 · 4 games
50%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
asdekor_r · 4 games
75%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
ssnovv1 · 4 games
25%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
ssnovv1 · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
532 picks · 598 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
483 picks · 244 bans
52%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
434 picks · 477 bans
56%
Jakiro
Jakiro
425 picks · 359 bans
46%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
400 picks · 841 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
386 picks · 365 bans
48%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
375 picks · 550 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
363 picks · 535 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 48%
Hero pool strength51% TNL DOTA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% TNL DOTA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:29
TNL DOTA 62%eSpoiled 38%
The model gave 62% on TNL DOTA — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 35:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingyowaai
48% · 136 games50% · 303 games
Terrorbladessnovv1
Terrorblade
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerNorma
53% · 65 games47% · 108 games
MarciWein
Marci
Queen of Pain
Queen of Paindualrazee
42% · 52 games66% · 60 games
Baneasdekor_r
Bane
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanFernans
50% · 112 games
Ringmaster
Ringmasterflacko
39% · 106 games
Game 2prediction correct47:27
TNL DOTA 57%eSpoiled 43%
The model gave 57% on TNL DOTA — the game was taken by TNL DOTA in 44:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetyowaai
44% · 93 games54% · 276 games
Muertassnovv1
Muerta
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightdualrazee
47% · 148 games55% · 210 games
Shadow ShamanWein
Shadow Shaman
Pangolier
PangolierNorma
43% · 198 games61% · 60 games
Baneasdekor_r
Bane
Rubick
RubickFernans
39% · 60 games
Undying
Undyingflacko
46% · 47 games
Game 3prediction missed14:19
TNL DOTA 60%eSpoiled 40%
The model gave 60% on TNL DOTA — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 34:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusayowaai
53% · 54 games53% · 189 games
Templar Assassinssnovv1
Templar Assassin
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritdualrazee
56% · 97 games48% · 63 games
Disruptorasdekor_r
Disruptor
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerNorma
52% · 69 games44% · 155 games
MarciWein
Marci
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetFernans
47% · 65 games
Tusk
Tuskflacko
50% · 122 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTNL DOTA · 71%
Series resulteSpoiled 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3