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FISSURE Universe: Episode 5 · BO2
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingloss 1:1
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Nigma Galaxyloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Nightfall · 39 games
54%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Mira · 30 games
60%
Magnus
Magnussignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 28 games
71%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Mira · 26 games
54%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Panto · 24 games
50%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
Nightfall · 23 games
61%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Mira · 23 games
78%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
kiyotaka · 22 games
64%

Nigma Galaxy

Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
No!ob · 34 games
74%
Tusk
Tusksignature
OmaR · 33 games
61%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
GH · 28 games
57%
Magnus
Magnussignature
SumaiL · 26 games
69%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 23 games
39%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
No!ob · 23 games
57%
Io
Iooften banned
GH · 22 games
55%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Ghost · 22 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
533 picks · 600 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
484 picks · 244 bans
52%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
434 picks · 474 bans
56%
Jakiro
Jakiro
427 picks · 360 bans
46%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
403 picks · 840 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
385 picks · 365 bans
48%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
376 picks · 550 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
363 picks · 533 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 49%
Hero pool strength50% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total50% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:45
Aurora Gaming 50%Nigma Galaxy 50%
The model gave 50% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 53:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerNightfall
48% · 79 games37% · 79 games
MorphlingGhost
Morphling
Axe
AxeTORONTOTOKYO
53% · 42 games52% · 77 games
BristlebackNo!ob
Bristleback
Death Prophet
Death Prophetkiyotaka
45% · 50 games57% · 86 games
Monkey KingSumaiL
Monkey King
Bane
BanePanto
59% · 62 games50% · 43 games
Elder TitanGH
Elder Titan
Marci
MarciMira
45% · 146 games53% · 94 games
Shadow ShamanOmaR
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction missed38:31
Aurora Gaming 50%Nigma Galaxy 50%
The model gave 50% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 52:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonNightfall
53% · 106 games49% · 81 game
Shadow FiendGhost
Shadow Fiend
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painkiyotaka
47% · 124 gameslittle data
Arc WardenSumaiL
Arc Warden
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerTORONTOTOKYO
47% · 172 games58% · 164 games
BristlebackNo!ob
Bristleback
Marci
MarciMira
41% · 134 games50% · 201 game
TuskGH
Tusk
Bane
BanePanto
59% · 25 games49% · 115 games
Shadow DemonOmaR
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 50%
Accuracy by game0 of 2