European Pro League Season 27 · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarinewin 2:1series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:1
TNL DOTAloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yellow Submarine
Tinyoften banned
re1bl · 14 games
Batrideroften banned
mrls · 11 games
Dark Willowsignature
mrls · 8 games
Muertasignature
mrls · 8 games
Timbersawoften banned
ififall · 8 games
Doomoften banned
ififall · 7 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
ififall · 6 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
nesfeer · 6 games
TNL DOTA
Dark Willowsignature
Fernans · 7 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Norma · 7 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
yowaai · 7 games
Tusk
Fernans · 6 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Norma · 4 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
flacko · 4 games
Pangolieroften banned
Norma · 4 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
yowaai · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
540 picks · 607 bans
Ringmaster
486 picks · 244 bans
Shadow Shaman
434 picks · 475 bans
Jakiro
430 picks · 376 bans
Terrorblade
406 picks · 849 bans
Tusk
389 picks · 364 bans
Storm Spirit
381 picks · 553 bans
Pangolier
365 picks · 532 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 56%
Hero pool strength54% TNL DOTA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:23
Yellow Submarine 61%TNL DOTA 39%
The model gave 61% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 44:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muertabottega
Puckdualrazee
DoomInfernal
DawnbreakerNorma
Void SpiritMirele
Nature's Prophetyowaai
Naga SirenXakoda
Undyingflacko
Shadow Shamanmrls
Dark WillowFernans
Game 2prediction missed14:40
Yellow Submarine 59%TNL DOTA 41%
The model gave 59% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by TNL DOTA in 29:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Linabottega
Templar Assassinyowaai
Void SpiritMirele
Storm Spiritdualrazee
AxeInfernal
Centaur WarrunnerNorma
Nature's ProphetXakoda
Shadow ShamanFernans
Tuskmrls
Undyingflacko
Game 3prediction correct33:39
Yellow Submarine 61%TNL DOTA 39%
The model gave 61% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 55:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Linabottega
Terrorbladeyowaai
Ember SpiritMirele
Shadow Fienddualrazee
AxeInfernal
UndyingNorma
Shadow Shamanmrls
Dark WillowFernans
RingmasterXakoda
Tuskflacko
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 67%
Series resultYellow Submarine 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3