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CCT Season 2 Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
One Moveloss 1:2
series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 1:2
eSpoiledwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

One Move

Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
SSS · 26 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Eyesight · 22 games
36%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Difference · 22 games
27%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Difference · 21 game
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Difference · 19 games
37%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Bb3px · 18 games
28%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Bb3px · 18 games
44%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Difference · 18 games
28%

eSpoiled

Windranger
Windranger
Wein · 8 games
25%
Tusk
Tusk
Wein · 7 games
57%
Sven
Sven
ssnovv1 · 5 games
40%
Drow Ranger
Drow Ranger
ssnovv1 · 4 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
ssnovv1 · 4 games
25%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
ssnovv1 · 4 games
50%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
asdekor_r · 3 games
67%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
asdekor_r · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
543 picks · 605 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
486 picks · 245 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
432 picks · 378 bans
46%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
431 picks · 473 bans
56%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
404 picks · 849 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
388 picks · 360 bans
49%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
382 picks · 554 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
365 picks · 532 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 47%
Hero pool strength52% eSpoiled
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
One Move 80%eSpoiled 20%
The model gave 80% on One Move — the game was taken by eSpoiled.
Game 2prediction correct
One Move 80%eSpoiled 20%
The model gave 80% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move.
Game 3prediction missed
One Move 80%eSpoiled 20%
The model gave 80% on One Move — the game was taken by eSpoiled.
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 80%
Series resulteSpoiled 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3